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《大行报告》汇丰研究下调成渝高速(00107.HK)目标价至2元 评级「持有」
阿思达克 10-13 13:35
汇丰研究发表报告指出,四川成渝高速公路(00107.HK)今年已停止披露每月数据,但管理层看到第三季的流量有所复苏。不过,通行费收入的恢复仍落後於交通增长,这是因为电子收费系统(ETC)的5%折扣所致,因此该行预期第三季的通行费收入或按年持平。

截至今年5月份,ETC的渗透率约63%,预期此比率或会在第四季继续增加,可能会拖低通行费收入增长。公司积极探索非收费业务,包括建设-移交项目(BT项目)建设、加油站、旅游、文化及教育。然而,盈利贡献仍有限,约占10%。而建筑业务的毛利率在上半年录得下跌,因为建筑材料及第三方项目的销售减少。由於缺乏新项目,因此该行预期非道路收费业务的盈利贡献仍低。

该行又指,在长远增长而言,公司正在寻找母公司资产注入的机会,但商讨估值的进展缓慢,认为公司的主要催化剂是未来几年的主要资产扩展。根据市场消息,公司的主要资产成渝高速公路可能会从4条车道延伸至8条车道,投资额约为339亿元人民币。管理层指相关计划仍在初步阶段,未有具体细节。

汇丰研究维持公司「持有」投资评级,因为其道路费收入增长前景疲弱,而投资前景亦有不确定性。将公司2020财年的盈利预测下调78%,以反映上半年高於预期的税务开支,2020至2021财年的道路费收入预测亦被下调,因为受到ETC折扣影响,目标价由原来的2.3元下调至2元。

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