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中國鐵塔(00788.HK):新業務高速發展,加快5G建設節奏,維持“買入”評級,目標價1.84 港元
格隆匯 10-12 11:52

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:1.84 港元

投資要點

下半年建設節奏加快,公司盈利水平及站均租户有望穩步提升。根據 20年初三大運營商建站計劃以及新基建政策驅動,為達成全年 70 萬站目標,下半年運營商基站建設進程加快。信通院消息顯示,截止 9 月 28 日,全國累計已完成 60 萬 5G 基站建設,相較於 H1 完成 24 萬 5G 基站,下半年基站建設節奏較 H1 大幅提升,Q3 已完成 20 萬座 5G 基站建設任務,單週基站建設量提升 60%,達 1.7 萬站,我們預計將驅動 H2 塔類業務收入。

塔類站址 201.5 萬座,租户數 331.3 萬户,塔類站均租户數提升至 1.64。公司塔類站址較 2019 年底增加 2.1 萬座,租户數達到 331.3 萬户,其中運營商租户 312.4 萬户,站均租户數 1.64 户/站(+4.1%),運營商站均租户1.55 户/站(+3.4%)。2020 年 H1 公司完成 21.5 萬個 5G 基站站址交付,交付需求完工率 108%,來自運營商的 5G 建設需求中 97%通過已有站址資源共享解決,有效降低資本開支,主動適應運營商降本增效目標。

公司上半年業績彙總:資本支出明顯增加,經營性現金流增長顯著。中國鐵塔 2020 年 H1 營業收入 397.9 億元(人民幣,下同)(+4.8%);EBITDA為 291.0 億元(+4.6%),EBITDA 率 73.1%(-0.1pcts);歸母淨利潤 29.8億元(+16.9%),盈利能力提升;經營性現金流 270.8 億元(+30.2%),H1公司資本開支 143.0 億元(+60.6%)。公司塔類業務收入 363.7 億元(+1.6%),佔比 91.4%;室分業務收入 17.2 億元(+37.2%),佔比 4.3%;跨行業及能源業務收入為 15.8 億元(+87.3%),佔比 4.0%;跨行業業務租户達到 18.9 萬户,較 2019 年底增加 1.3 萬户,同比增長 25.2%。

投資建議:2020 H2 站址建設速度以及交付數量都有望進一步提升,站均租户數穩步增長,較同類公司仍有較大上升空間。我們採用 DCF 法進行估值,取 wacc=10%,適當下調公司未來三年運營商宏站站址同比增速,對應我們下調目標價至 1.84 港元,下調幅度 8%,對應 2020 年 EV/EBITDA為 6.3,距 2020 年 10 月 9 日收盤價有 36.3%漲幅空間,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:1)運營商資本開支下降;2)5G 建設不及預期;3)產品價格調整。

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