植耀輝: 港股宜先靜觀其變 「中國芯」目標仍遙遠
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,執筆之時亦是美國首場總統候選人辯論之日。「牌面」上看現任總統特朗普應佔上風,始終論口才特朗普應可被看高一線;不過現時距離選舉仍有一個月時間,最終鹿死誰手仍是未知之數;只是對投資市場則未必是一件好事。港股在中美角力之下,加上北水將暫定一段時間,恐怕走勢仍難樂觀。所以現階段還是不適宜太進取,維持靜觀其變策略會較好。
另外,近日圍繞中美之間的話仍多不勝數,最新便有美國擬對中芯(00981.HK)實施出口管制。消息其實並不意外,皆因美國今年對華為採取「封殺」措施時,外界已預計中芯亦會受到打擊,不過同時又再帶出另一個值得深究話題,究竟內地何時才能做到真正芯片國產化?筆者過去數天花了不少時間去研究相關產業,奈何實在過於複雜,故筆者嘗試簡單地作出解釋。
芯片製造涉及多個專業範疇,不過基本上每一個環節只得個別一兩間企業「跑出」,例如台灣台積電(TSM.US)主導芯片代工市場,而生產所須之必要設備光刻機則有荷蘭ASML公司;但光刻機內之重要零部件,又會由其他國家供應(例如日本Jtekt之金剛石及德國蔡司鏡片)。所以要建立全「自家製」之完整產業鏈,難度可以說是十分之高。
當中,又以光刻機最受關注。皆因光刻工藝是晶片製造過程中佔用時間最多的步驟,約佔晶片製造40%至50%。同時光刻機也是目前晶圓製造產線中成本最高的半導體設備,約佔晶圓生產線設備總成本之四分之一。事實上,目前一部最先進採用EUV技術之光刻機在2018年單台平均售價便高達1.04億歐元。
而在目前的光刻機市場,ASML、佳能(Canon)以及尼康(Nikon)三間企業基本上是壟斷整個市場,ASML在高端市場上又一家獨大,且是全球唯一可以生產EUV光刻機之供應商。至於中國,目前只得上海微電子能自行生產光刻機,明年料可生產28nm之光刻機,但技術上跟ASML相比(5nm)仍有頗遠距離。
為了追趕與海外之差距,內地不論官方及民間,未來亦肯定會加大相關研發。早前發改委及科技部等四部門便聯合發文,聚焦重點產業投資領域,要求「加快基礎材料、關鍵芯片、高端元器件、新型顯示器件、關鍵軟體等核心技術攻關」;早前《彭博通訊社》亦指北京將在2025年之前投資9.5萬億人民幣研製芯片。此外,各地亦掀起投資半導體芯片熱潮,截至9月上旬,全中國已有近14萬個設計芯片的公司註冊成立。人多固然好辦事,但如不能針對現時狀況而「人做我又做」,筆者擔心恐怕最終仍只會徒勞無功。事實上,現時已有不少大型項目「爛尾」,當中便包括湖北武漢弘芯之千億級半導體項目。而且正如上文提到,芯片製造涉及多個專業範疇,所以最好還是按部就班,研究如何在每一個細節上做好才是最重要。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~
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