華住集團-S(01179.HK)：Q3經營顯著回升，二次上市助力高增長，給予“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
財務情況：Q2 大幅減虧，經營性淨現金流轉正，加盟店收入恢復較快。華住近日發佈 2020Q2 財報。Q2 營收同比下降 31.7%，其中直營店和加盟店 20Q2 營收環比下降 18.5%和增長 45.4%。20Q2 剔除公允價值變動損益和股權激勵後，Non GAAP EBITDA 為虧損 0.97 億元，淨虧損 5.48 億元，分別較 Q1 虧損 7.04 億元和 21.35 億元明顯改善。20Q2 經營性淨現金流為 5.12 億元，由負轉正（20Q1 為-13.5 億元）。
Q2 原有品牌經營好轉，DH 酒店承壓，3 季度以來均持續改善。Q2 華住原品牌營業中酒店 RevPAR/ADR/OCC 同比降幅分別收窄至-38.2%/-22.0%/-18.1pct，而 DH 酒店 Q2 受海外疫情影響較大。3 季度以來經營繼續恢復，其中華住原品牌 7 月 RevPAR/ADR/OCC 分別為 162 元/205 元/79%，而 8 月 RevPAR/ADR/OCC 分別為 187 元/223元/84%。預計 3 季度已回升至去年同期的 90%以上水平。
新股發行：赴港二次上市交易，順利募集資金約 59 億港元，助力公司中長期發展。公司總計發行約 2042 萬股，每股定價 297 港元，發售淨募集資金約 59.248 億港元，將用於支持公司資本開支、償還債務等。
總體觀點：Q2 以來經營壓力緩解，開店提速，看好龍頭長期競爭優勢。預計 2020-22 年 Non GAAP 淨利潤分別為-5.77 億元、19.96 億元和22.97 億元。參考 17 年以來平均估值水平，同時考慮行業估值整體回升，給予公司美股 21 年 50 倍 P/E 估值，對應華住酒店（HTHT.O）合理價值為 48.25 美元/ADS，根據美元兑港元最新匯率，折算得到華住集團（01179.HK）合理價值為 373.96 港元/股，維持華住酒店（HTHT.O）“增持”評級，首次覆蓋華住集團（01179.HK），給予“增持”評級。
風險提示。疫情影響存在不確定性，加盟店擴展速度不及預期等。
注：除特殊説明外均採用人民幣為貨幣單位。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
