小米集團-W(01810.HK)小米首次覆蓋路演反饋:華為的空間與小米的估值再探討,給予“買入”評級,目標價35港元
機構:浦發銀行
評級:買入
目標價:35港元
9 月初,我們首次覆蓋小米(1810. HK),給予了“買入”評級和 35港元的目標價。在路演的過程中,市場上的投資人對於小米這隻股票表現出較大的關注度和興趣點。大體上,市場上認可我們的觀點,對於小米的前景表達樂觀,看好小米未來在歐洲智能手機市場的表現。我們這篇報告針對路演中討論最多的兩個問題進行深一步的分析,以供投資人對小米的判斷做出參考。
問:若華為因為美出口禁令無法出貨智能手機,小米可以取得多少華為在智能手機市場留下的空間?
答:若華為完全退出智能手機市場,我們測算中國智能手機品牌整體可以取得約 70%華為智能手機的市場空間(圖表 4)。其中,小米可以拿下華為約 27%的市場空間;按照華為 2019 年 2.4 億部出貨計算,小米可以拿到 6400 萬空間。這裏主要包括小米拿下華為在中國的 30%的份額(圖表 1 和圖表 2)以及華為在歐洲的 34%(圖表 3)。具體分析參見華為市場空間分析。
問:小米用怎樣的估值方法合適?怎樣對小米的智能手機硬件部分進行估值?
答:投資人更多以分部加總法(SOTP)對小米進行估值(圖表 6),並且給予小米硬件部分一個相對低的估值。我們認為這種估值方法並不能合理的體現小米的價值。首先,小米的 IoT 業務和互聯網業務都部分或者全部基於小米的智能手機用户數,因此這兩部分業務都一定程度無法脱離智能手機業務而單獨存在。所以,將小米的利潤看做一個整體更為合理。其次,港股和 A 股優質的硬件公司,如立訊(36x)、歌爾(42x)、欣旺達(33x)等,都有較高的估值溢價。因此,我們不認為小米的高增長的硬件業務應該給予相對低的估值。詳情參見小米估值分析。
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