2020年8月社会消费品零售数据点评:社零同比增幅今年首次转正,通讯/化妆品/珠宝增幅居前,维持“强大于市”评级
机构:万联证券
评级:维持“强大于市”
行业核心观点:
2020年8月我国社零总额当月同比增长0.5%,今年首次实现正增长。随着餐饮活动恢复以及各线下服务业加速回暖,餐饮收入(-7.0%)跌幅收窄,细分行业中,通讯器材类(25.1%)、化妆品类(19%)、金银珠宝类(15.3%)表现亮眼;此外,除了建筑及装潢材料类(-2.9%)、家具类(-4.2%)、石油及制品类(-14.5%)增速为负以外,其余品类都同比实现了正增长,其中服装鞋帽与针纺织品类、家用电器和音像器材类8月同比增速较7月由负转正,另外通讯器材类增速相比7月提升了13.8个pct,增速环比改善明显。随着出行放开与商业活动恢复,经济逐渐企稳,下半年社零增速将继续回升,同时中秋国庆期间,婚庆活动会迎来高峰期,将会带动9月金银珠宝销量的进一步提升。近期建议关注金银珠宝、家具家居、旅游行业、化妆品、高端白酒等行业的投资机会。
投资要点:
8月社零同比增长0.5%,今年首次实现正增长。8月份,社会消费品零售总额33571亿元,同比增长0.5%,为今年以来首次正增长,符合消费回暖预期。8月国内疫情继续得到有效控制,餐饮活动恢复,各线下服务业加速回暖且跨省游逐步放开,消费继续得到有效刺激,预计9月份增速将继续回升。
8月通讯器材类、化妆品类、金银珠宝类表现亮眼。通讯器材类(25.1%)、化妆品类(19%)、金银珠宝类(15.3%)、饮料类(12.9%)、汽车类(11.8%)、日用品类(11.4%)实现了10%以上的增速;此外,除了建筑及装潢材料类(-2.9%)、家具类(-4.2%)、石油及制品类(-14.5%)以外,都同比实现了正增长,其中服装鞋帽与针纺织品类(4.2%)、家用电器和音像器材类(4.3%)8月同比增速较7月由负转正,另外通讯器材类(25.1%)增速相比7月提升了13.8个pct,增速环比改善明显。石油及制品类、建筑及装潢材料类、家具类同比仍下降。必选消费的烟酒类、粮油和食品类8月同比增速下降最明显,较7月分别下降1.9、2.7个pct。
1-8月网上零售继续实现正增长,其中吃类和用类商品增幅收窄,
穿类转负为正。1—8月份,全国网上零售额70326亿元,同比增长9.5%,比1—7月份提高0.5个pct。其中,实物商品网上零售额58651亿元,增长15.8%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为24.6%。在实物商品网上零售额中,吃类商品增长35.4%,用类商品同比增长18.3%,增幅均收窄;穿类商品增长1.1%,转负为正。
风险提示:疫情二次爆发、经济下行、政策风险
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