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新城悦服務(01755.HK):看好公司未來兩年業績持續高成長,上調目標價,維持“買入”評級,目標價30港元
格隆匯 09-08 09:28

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

目標價:30港元

2020 年中期業績高速增長,符合預期

近期公司發佈2020 年中期業績報告,截至2020年6月 30日,公司實現營業收入12.21 億元,同比增長 42.7%,股東應占利潤 1.89 億元,同比增長 61.1%,毛利率自 2019 年同期的約29.2%提升0.6 個百分點至 29.8%,業績增長符合我們的預期。其中物業管理服務收入 5.30億元,同比增長33.3%,收入佔比約為 43.3%;開發商增值服務收入2.98 億元,同比增長8.8%,佔比約為24.4%;社區增值服務1.85億元,同比增長94.7%,收入佔比15.2%。社區增值服務增長表現亮眼。

第三方拓展表現亮眼

截至 2019 年6 月30 日,公司第三方拓展顯著發力,合約面積中來自第三方的達 1252 萬平方米(包括併購),今年上半年的第三方拓展面積已超去年全年的拓展總面積。同時,公司在管面積中來自第三方的在管面積約為 2501 萬平方米,佔比達35.1%,第三方在管面積佔比迅速提升。

背靠新城系,業績增長的確定性高

截至 2020 年6 月30 日,公司在管面積中來自新城系、第三方的佔比分別為64.9%、35.1%,公司業績的增長與新城系的發展密切相關。截至2020 年 6 月 30 日,新城控股(601155.SH)土地儲備 1.37 億平方米,其中2020 年上半年新增的土地儲備面積約為 1907 萬平米。新城控股目前在建面積約為8760 萬平方米, 2020 年下半年計劃新開工面積1327萬平方米,在建面積與新開工面積合計達1 億平方米,預計將於2022 年底前竣工交付。

投資建議

截至 2020年 6月30日,公司在管面積約為 7120萬平方米,較2019年末增加1100萬平方米;合約面積約為1.67 億平方米,較 2019 年末增加1420 萬平方米。公司合約面積與在管面積的比率維持在 2.35的高水平,顯示出公司未來兩年業績仍具備高速增長潛力。我們上調公司 2020——2022年歸母淨利潤至 4.23億、6.56億、9.90億元,對應EPS為0.52元、0.80元、1.21元。給予公司 2021年PE33X,對應目標價30港元,維持“買入”的投資評級。

風險提示

房地產行業調整超預期導致業績增長放緩;人員成本大幅上升;疫情持續時間超預期。

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