天伦燃气(01600.HK)：上半年逆境稳守，下半年发力增长，评级“买入",目标价7.60港元
机构：中泰证券
评级：买入
目标价：7.60港元
2020年上半年股东净利润同比下跌7.4%，核心利润则上升3.5%
在肺炎疫情影响下，公司2020年上半年股东净利润同比下跌7.4%至人民币3.8亿，主要因为(一)天然气总销售量同比下跌3.5%；(二)新增住宅用户数目同比下跌2.9%；(三)汇兑净损失同比上升387.8%至人民币5,471万。虽然如此，受惠(1)毛利率改善和(2)有效控制行政费用开支，如果扣除其他亏损净额及信托投资收益，核心利润则同比增长3.5%至人民币4.2亿。
第二季度业务整体明显恢复，预计下半年可以加快改善
2020年第一季度公司业务确实受到重大影响，可是第二季度已经整体明显恢复。天然气总销售量、住宅用户销气量、工商业用户销气量、交通用户销气量的同比增长率分别由第一季度的-5.0%、16.1%、-7.1%、-3.6%上升至第二季度的-1.8%、16.3%、6.3%、10.0%。新增住宅用户及工商业用户数目的同比增长率也在同期分别由-47.4%和-7.5%上升至6.7%和7.8%。由于7月起中国内地疫情已经明显受到控制，工商业活动已经恢复并渐更活跃，我们预计下半年公司业务可以加快改善，满足增加的天然气需求。
公司更新2020年发展目标
因应上半年表现，公司更新2020年发展目标，其中定下零售销气量同比增长10%的目标。考虑到中期业绩及上述因素，我们分别下调2020-2021年股东净利润预测15.8%及23.2%，并加入2022年预测(见图表2)。我们预计天然气总销售量的同比增长率将由2019年的21.2%下跌至2020年的10.7%，但由于需求恢复，2021-2022年的同比增长率将分别达到14.3%和12.5%。
降低目标价，重申“买入”评级
我们相应地将由贴现现金流分析(DCF)推算的目标价由9.25港元下调17.8%至7.60港元(见图表4和5)，这对应6.7倍2020年市盈率和24.6%上升空间。重申“买入”评级。
风险提示：(一)项目延误、(二)天然气供应紧张、(三)接驳费下降或被取消。
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