中銀航空租賃(02588.HK)：短期行業衝擊不改穩健經營，維持“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
全球航空業正自四月低點恢復。根據 IATA 數據，截至 2020 年 6 月末，全球境內航線每週航班數已回覆至年初 50%以上水平，國際航線每週航班數恢復至年初約 25%水平。亞太區恢復最快，中國境內航線需求與供給已恢復至去年同期七到八成水平。
2020 上半年飛機租賃公司業績較平穩。中銀航空租賃公告 2020 年上半年經營業績，實現營業總收入 10.35 億美元，同比增長 11%；實現税後淨利潤 3.23 億美元，持平去年同期。每股收益 0.47 美元。同期上市飛機租賃公司（取 Aercap、Air Lease、中國飛機租賃三家）營收同比增速在-2.3%~+10.3%區間，淨利潤同比增速在-7.6%~+5.73%。
中銀航空租賃經營穩健，強流動性支持擴張：飛機利用率保持在 99.8%相對高位，融資成本降至 3.2%，資本負債倍數提升至 3.5 倍。上半年公司共交付 23 架飛機，訂單簿中計劃於 2023 年前交付的飛機已確定航空公司客户，整體機隊規模從 2019 年 523 架擴充至 571 架。
短期受疫情影響公司租金回收率可能下降、減值增加，而擴充機隊及飛機銷售數量減少會增加折舊支出，整體降低當期利潤率。但公司強股東背景及高評級支持其強融資能力，“年輕+熱門機型”的機隊在抵抗飛機價值波動及尋租過程中具優勢，此外亦受益融資成本下降以降低新增債務成本，有望在逆境下維持主業平穩經營及獲取良好成長機會。預計 2020-2021 年公司實現歸母淨利潤 6.12 和 6.85 億美元，同比增長-12.8%和 11.8%。最新收盤價對應 2020E P/B 0.87 倍。我們看好航空業恢復帶動公司估值修復，公司近五年 PB 估值中樞在 1.2x，按照 2020 年 1.15 倍 P/B 進行估值，合理價值約 8.42 美元/股，摺合約 65.25 港元/股（按照 1 港元=0.129 美元），維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：全球性疫情大規模惡化、全球陷入經濟危機；公司機隊擴張不及預期、公司評級下調影響融資能力等。
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