You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
吉利汽車(00175.HK):20H1業績承壓,下半年銷量目標同比+11%,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 08-19 16:41

機構:天風證券

評級:買入

事件:

公司發佈 2020 半年報:公司實現營收 368.20 億元,同比下降 22.6%;實現淨利潤 23.20 億元,同比下降 42.7%;歸母淨利潤 22.97 億元,同比下降42.7%。

事件點評:

行業景氣度低迷,業績略低於預期。受疫情影響,吉利 2020 上半年實現汽車銷量 53.0 萬輛(含領克),同比下降 19%,達到全年新銷量目標 132萬輛的 40%;其中領克銷量達 5.5 萬輛,同比下降 2%。吉利國內市場銷量同比下降 17%至 51.1 萬輛,出口同比下降 49%至 2.0 萬輛。由於行業低迷,公司給經銷商提供的折扣優惠較大,公司 20H1 平均出廠售價同比下降 6%(經測算,均價或約為 7.1 萬元/輛)。因此,公司 20H1 實現營收 368.2 億 元(零部件+專利許可 31.0 億),同比下降 22.6%;毛利率 17.1%,同比下 降 0.69 個百分點。此外,公司三費費用率同比增加 3.17 個百分點至 13.0%,其中:1)銷售費用率同比增加 1.20 個百分點至 5.9%;2)管理費用率(包含研發)同比增加 2.10 個百分點至 7.3%,主要是折扣攤銷費用增加所致。最終,公司實現淨利潤 23.2 億元,同比下降 42.7%。此外,領克品牌 20H1實現淨利潤 1.9 億,同比下降 29%。

龍頭地位牢固,多款全新車型陸續上市。吉利經過多年快速發展,已建立了牢固的龍頭地位。2020H1,吉利在中國自主品牌乘用車製造商中蟬聯第一,佔據國內乘用車市場的 6.5%,為緊隨一汽大眾、上汽大眾、上汽通用後的第四大車企。此外,公司於上半年推出 3 款全新車型:吉利豪越、ICON和領克 05,下半年公司計劃推出多款新車型,如博瑞 GE、新一代領克 01、幾何 C 等 6 款新車&改款車型,將進一步完善公司新品矩陣,增強競爭力。行業持續轉暖,下半年銷量有望同比+11%。公司將全年銷量目標由 141萬輛下調至 132 萬輛。截至 2020 年 7 月,吉利年度累計銷量 63.6 萬輛,達到全年新銷量目標的 48%。而隨疫情控制後的消費情緒逐步回暖,疊加吉利的新產品推動,全年銷量目標有望實現,20H2 銷量有望同比增長11.2%。

投資建議:

短期來看,疫情對吉利及供應鏈將造成較大的經營壓力。但長期來看,吉利是非常具擴張力的自主龍頭車企,並且具備全球競爭的實力。此外,受疫情影響,行業或再次經歷洗牌,龍頭集中度有望進一步提升;而疫情結束後,汽車行業有望快速復甦,驅動公司業績估值雙升。由於此前對於疫情影響的預估較為樂觀,將 2020、2021 年歸母淨利潤由 102、142 億元下調至 86、132 億元,EPS 為 0.88、1.34 元/股,對應當前 PE 17.1 倍、11.1倍,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:疫情控制速度不及預期、汽車行業轉暖速度不及預期、價格戰力度超預期、領克銷量不及預期、新車型銷量不及預期等。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account