新城悦服務(01755.HK)：儲備充足，拓展積極，高速增長，給予“買入”評級，目標價32.0港元
機構：興業證券
來源：買入
目標價：32.0港元
投資要點
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價32港元：物管行業正處在快速擴張期，持續享受規模紅利。當前公司已覆蓋全國105個大中城市，逐步向二三線城市發力，關聯方新城控股的土儲與銷售充足，物管品牌實力將為第三方外拓與增值服務持續賦能。基於公司清晰的關聯方交付計劃、明確的三年規劃及高效執行能力，我們預計公司2020-2022年的營業收入分別為32.4、50.0、72.4億元人民幣，分別同比增長59.8%、54.4%及45.0%，淨利潤分別為4.3、6.7、10.1億元人民幣，分別同比增長50.6%、57.7%和50.3%。首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價32港元，對應2020-2022年分別55、35、23倍PE，較2020年8月4日收盤價有29%上升空間。
儲備充足，在管規模加速擴張：背靠新城控股，公司擁有充足的儲備項目，合約在管比維持在2.54的較高水平，2015-2019年在管面積複合增長率達到33%。通過內生+外延併購，2019年第三方項目佔比達到29%，非住宅業態佔比也將提升，預計2019-2022年在管面積的複合增速將超過50%。?積極拓展，開發多種增值服務：公司開發了多類型的增值服務，在常規的開發商相關服務和社區相關服務以外，還增加了智慧園區服務，2019年增值服務的營收佔比已經達到58%，毛利佔比達到60%。
激勵豐厚，管理層執行力強大：公司秉承職業經理人制度，主要管理層具有豐富的行業經驗，發放高行權條件股權激勵彰顯管理層決心與執行力。2019年公司加大拓展力度，第三方拓展團隊增加1倍，年內新增1010萬方第三方面積，其中70%為新項目。同時收併購也積極推進，年內落地的收併購使公司進入商管領域，在管業態進一步豐富。
風險提示：業務擴張和收購不及預期；物業管理費提價受阻；收繳率不及預期；增值業務拓展不及預期。
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