新天綠色能源(00956.HK):2020年第二季運營表現合乎預期,下調“增持”評級,目標價2.50 港元
機構:中泰證券
評級:增持
目標價:2.50 港元
2020 年第二季風電發電量及天然氣銷售量分別同比上升 7.8%及 14.5%
公司昨天公佈合乎預期的 2020 年第二季運營數據。風電發電量及天然氣銷售量分別同比上升7.8%及14.5%至2,319吉瓦時和547百萬立方米,佔我們全年預測的23.4%和15.6%,與 2019 年同期的 24.3%和 14.8%實際佔比相若。雖然第二季天然氣批發業務銷售量同比增長僅 1.3%,但是零售業務銷售量則同比增長 34.3%。我們相信在中國已有效控制肺炎疫情下,工商業活動將更為活躍,對天然氣需求可明顯增長,下半年天然氣銷售量增速將加快。
A 股 IPO 已經成功完成,市場短期將轉向關注下月中期業績公佈
公司 A 股 IPO 已經成功完成,A 股(股票代碼:600956)於 2020 年 6 月 29 日在上海證券交易所掛牌。我們預計市場短期將轉向關注下月中期業績公佈。
公司股價近期上漲,因此下調評級至“增持”
我們維持盈利預測,並保持由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價於2.50港元(見圖表1和2),這對應5.3倍2021年市盈率和13.6%上升空間。由於公司股價近期上漲,我們因此將評級由“買入”下調至“增持”。
風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌。

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