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吉利汽車(00175.HK):20Q2銷量同比+14%,Q3有望延續高增長,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 07-07 14:58

機構:天風證券

評級:買入

事件:

公司6月產銷快報:6月份批發銷量達11.0萬輛,同比+21%,環比+1%。其中,內銷10.6萬輛,同比+25%;出口4,109輛,同比-34%;新能源車8750輛,同比-45%。環比+43%;領克品牌1.3萬輛,同比+53%,環比+2%。

事件點評:

需求快速復甦,銷量連續3月同比轉正,市佔率持續提升。吉利汽車6月份銷量達11萬輛,同比+21%,環比+1%;4月至6月,批發銷量分別同比增長2%、20%、21%。我們認為主要原因為:1)疫情好轉到店量持續復甦;2)4月份廠家全面恢復考核和獎勵,帶來較大加庫任務;3)新車週期,刺激需求,加速渠道備貨:吉利全新車型ICON於2月底上市,領克05、豪越分別於5月5日、6月24日上市;4)19年的低基數:“國五轉國六”造成行業於19年5、6月大幅去庫存,2個月總批發銷量僅為18萬輛,同比-28%。此外,我們預計吉利6月上險數有望實現10.0-10.5萬輛,同比下滑26%至22%,環比提升4%至9%。

1、品牌細分來看:1)領克品牌:6月銷量1.3萬輛,同比+53%,環比+2%,連續三個月保持雙位數增長;此外,截止6月,領克品牌銷量累計突破30萬輛;2)吉利品牌:6月銷量9.7萬輛,同比+18%,環比+1%;2、車型細分來看:1)SUV:6月銷量7.0萬輛,同比+36%,環比+10%;2)轎車:6月銷量3.7萬輛,同比+5%,環比-14%;3)MPV:6月銷量2808輛,同比-23%,環比+26%。

行業持續轉暖,下半年年有望延續高增長。20年上半年,吉利累計銷售53.0萬輛,完成全年銷量目標的38%;1-5月份市佔率提升至6.9%,同比提升0.53個百分點。其中,20Q2實現銷量32.4萬輛,同比增長13.8%,接近我們此前15%的預期。而隨疫情控制後的消費情緒逐步回暖,疊加吉利的新產品推動。我們預計吉利汽車20Q3銷量同比增長有望超20%,全年依舊有望正增長。

投資建議:

中短期來看,疫情對吉利等強自主/合資的影響已基本過去,產銷快速復甦;但對於弱自主和合資的影響仍在持續,吉利有望進一步提升品牌力和市佔率。長期來看,隨着正式邁入“4.0全面架構體系造車時代”,以及與沃爾沃合併後持續的深化,吉利有望逐步成為全球一線品牌。而在寬信用背景下,隨汽車行業的逐步轉暖以及“吉利迴歸”,有望帶動公司利潤估值雙升。我們公司預計2020、2021年歸母淨利潤為102、142億元,EPS為1.11、1.54元/股,對應13.4、9.7倍PE,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:行業銷售不及預期、價格戰力度超預期、領克銷量不及預期、新車型銷量不及預期等。

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