越秀地產(00123.HK):廣鐵合作推進,TOD物業收購落地,維持“買入”評級,目標價2.30港元
機構:興業證券
評級:買入
目標價:2.30港元
事件:
據公告,公司2020年5月實現銷售金額和麪積112億元和42萬平米,同比增長47%和22%。截至5月公司實現累計銷售金額和麪積258億元和101萬平米,同比下降10%和19%。
投資要點
維持“買入”評級,目標價2.30港元:公司的多元拓儲取得進展,通過與廣州地鐵合作,公司新增2個TOD物業,合計面積超100萬平米,成本合理資產優質。公司在拿地方面繼續深耕大灣區和聚焦一二線城市;5月銷售增速顯著回升。我們預計公司2020/2021年的營業收入為490/628億元,同比增長28%/28%;核心淨利潤為44/55億元,同比增長26%/23%。我們維持“買入”評級,目標價2.30港元,對應2020/2021年PE為6.7/5.5倍,較現價還有61%的漲幅。當前股息收益率為7.1%。?5月單月銷售金額增速轉正:5月單月公司實現銷售金額和麪積112億元和42萬平米,分別同比增長47%和22%,環比增長105%和81%。
截至5月,公司實現累計銷售金額和麪積258億元和101萬平米,分別同比下降10%和19%,累計銷售均價為25708元/平米。截至5月的銷售目標完成度為32%,略高於行業平均水平。
積極補充土儲:1至5月,公司新增土地儲備GFA94萬平米,新增土地款項為158億元。若加上已落地未注入的兩個地鐵上蓋物業,新增土地儲備GFA達到199萬平米,其中大部分項目均位於廣州。
持續佈局一二線城市:2019年公司在一二線拿地佔比超過9成。2020年以來公司通過競拍、合作等方式在廣州、蘇州獲取4幅土地,年內未進入新城市。
廣鐵合作繼續推進,地鐵物業收購如期落地:繼品秀新圖、蘿崗、沉頭崗項目後,公司與廣鐵合作項目繼續落地。TOD物業地理位置優,收購成本合理,去化率和利潤率可保持較好水平。母公司已於6月4日與廣州地鐵訂立協議收購水西和鎮龍兩個項目51%股權,兩項目合計GFA超過100萬平米,預計將於今年7月前投入建造。公司可在母公司收購事項完成後行使收購期權。若收購於2020年12月31日完成,公司的收購地價分別約23和33億元,對應兩個項目的樓面地價分別為13485和9184元/平米,佔周邊新盤售價比例約30%。通過此次合作,公司進一步補充了地鐵物業土儲,地鐵物業總GFA達到419萬平米。
風險提示:宏觀經濟增長放緩;行業調控政策加嚴;流動性收緊;公司銷售不及預期;人民幣貶值
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