滔搏(06110.HK)：業績底確認，5月起實現正增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：（本文如無特殊説明，貨幣單位均為人民幣）
公司公佈 2020財年業績。期間公司實現收入 336.9億元， YOY+3.5%；毛利率 42.1%，YOY+0.3pct；營業利潤率 9.2%，YOY-0.1pct；歸母淨利潤 23.0億元，YOY+4.7%；淨利率6.8%，YOY+0.1pct；經營現金流 64.5億元， YOY+104.9%； 每股派息19分人民幣， 分紅率 51.2%。
分渠道，直營/經銷/聯營收入分別為 291.7/42.2/2.7 億元，YOY+0.7%/25.8%/13.9%。期末直營店 8395 家，YOY+52 家。公司開改關策略持續，300 平以上門店佔比 7.3%，YOY+2.3pct；150-300平門店佔比 24.4%， YOY+0.7pct；帶動直營銷售面積同比增長10.6%。
分品牌，耐克/阿迪及二線運動品牌收入分別為 294.9/39.0 億元，YOY+4.4%/-4.2%。二線運動品牌受部分品牌不再繼續合作有所拖累
運營能力：營業週期 139.4 天，YOY+8.8 天；存貨週轉 118 天，YOY+15.9 天；應收週轉21.4 天，YOY-7.1 天。存貨週轉天數上升主要系 2 月份疫情導致高庫存。應收週轉天數下降主要系流水基數下降較大，以及商場月結優先支付滔搏等大型合作伙伴。
業績底確認，5 月流水恢復正增長。參考寶勝國際等其他運動鞋服公司數據，3-4 月份流水大概率仍為負增長，但業績底部已經確認。據業績會，5 月份滔搏已實現正增長。剔除 2 月份，19 年 3 月-20 年 1 月公司收入增速仍達 13%，我們看好滔搏無可動搖的行業地位，及領先的數字化與精細化運營，預計下半年業績有望迴歸增長中樞。
預計 21-22 年 EPS 為 0.38/0.43 元/股。預計 21-22 年滔搏收入365.1/404.7 億元，YOY+8.4%/10.9%；歸母淨利潤23.9/26.9 億元，YOY+3.6%/12.8%。使用 DCF 估值法，滔搏合理價值為 11.94 港元股，維持 “買入”評級。
風險提示。疫情反覆，零售環境惡化。
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