《大行报告》摩通:中资股策略转吸周期性行业 首选万科、药明生物及阿里等
摩根大通发表报告表示,随着内地推动复工复产下,周期性复苏良好,而全国人大於5月22日开幕,指当局财政支持经济政策较市场预期为大,财政组合措施相当GDP的8.4%,高於该行原先基本情境预测的7.7%,包括3.76万亿人民币的财政赤字预算、3.75万亿地方特别债券及1万亿特别国债。
该行指,中美两国关系日趋紧张,从贸易到科技的压力上升,美国亦公布对华为出口限制,亦见金融及地缘领域的冲突。摩通指,考虑到内地本土经济催化及面临外部挑战因素後,投资主题决定由防守性转至周期性板块,预期本地消费、内房及新旧基建固投可推动经济复苏。该行予MSCI中国指数基本情境至今年年底目标为92,相当预测市盈率12.5倍。
摩通表示,在该行中资股模拟组合中,剔出中移动(00941.HK)及调低对中资电讯行业评级至「减持」,内银股方面,以建行(00939.HK)取代交行(03328.HK)。而该行在行业中建议「增持」包括工业、日用消费品、医疗、耐用消费品及内房,但建议「减持」能源、公用、通讯服务、资讯科技及保险行业。
该行亦列出其中资股最新首选股,包括万科(02202.HK)、药明生物(02269.HK)、在美上市的阿里巴巴(BABAUS)、三一重工(600031.SH)及贵州茅台(600519.SH)。(wl/k)
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