腾讯控股(00700.HK)：20Q1业绩前瞻及后续展望，维持"买入"评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
我们从美股科技股 20Q1 财报看，尽管有疫情影响，几家科技巨头财报后股价均出现上涨，整体疫情影响有限，短期可能收入端会有些影响，不过疫情加速企业线上化，中长期看对互联网公司是机会。
对腾讯财报，短期关注金融科技、游戏、广告的预期差，中期看金融科技和广告盈利提升，长期看 2B业务。金融科技：因支付占金融科技收入比重较高，利润占比相对不高，疫情对 Q1 支付（尤其是线下支付）交易额有一定负面影响，微粒贷、理财产品在 Q1整体增长比较好。游戏：高递延收入+疫情刺激需求增长，市场对 Q1 预期比较好，后续增长驱动来自储备的头部手游+海外增长，我们预计20Q1 手游收入同比增长 38.8%。 《地下城与勇士》手游截至5 月10 日国内预约量近 3,500万(来自官网)，预计上线后将对手游带来很大增量。广告：目前市场预期不高，值得注意的是社交广告收入增长带来的毛利率增长，激发广告对利润的贡献提升。从需求和增长方向看，广告主更加侧重广告效果和转化，而腾讯今年重点强化的商业生态（实现交易闭环）、线下商家数字化（借助互联网为线下引流），也将正向促进广告销售。云业务及企业服务 Q1 虽有影响，我们更多关注长期增长，疫情将加速企业上云。小程序、腾讯会议、企业微信是腾讯2B 业务比较大的亮点，用户数和活跃度快速增长。
维持“买入”评级。预计 20~21 年 NonGAAP 归母净利为人民币 1,133亿、1,400 亿元，当前股价对应 20~21年PE为32倍、26倍。游戏增长强劲，金融科技盈利继续提升，微信商业生态提速，疫情加速企业数字化、在线化，腾讯 to B能力逐渐被验证，打开中长期增长空间。基于分部估值方法，得到合理价值 503 港元/股。
风险提示： 疫情短期影响支付和广告增长；新游版号发放和流水不达预期；微信商业生态进展不及预期；支付和云行业竞争致费用提升。
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