《季绩前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)首季新业务价值按年按年跌26% 受疫情拖累
市场预期友邦保险(01299.HK)将於本周五(15日)开市前公布首季业务摘要，市场预期集团旗下本港市场於上半年仍处弱势，新冠疫情封关令内地客户无法到本港签保单等响下，本网综合8间券商料友邦2020年首季新业务价值介乎8.18亿美元至9.12亿美元，较2019年首季11.69亿美元，按年下跌22%至30%，中位数为8.63亿美元，按年倒退26.2%。
由於新冠疫情在全球蔓延，券商关注自2月以来内地游客访港以及面对面交流受限，估计友邦首季新业务价值将按年下滑，高盛估计友邦首季新业务价值8.68亿美元(按实质汇率计)按年跌25.7%，其中料本港地区新新业务价值按年大跌63%，成拖低业绩的主要原因，料内地及泰国业务新业务价值均按年持平。投资者除了聚焦本港地区业务外，仍会留意内地业务最新指引，特别是内地代理活动恢复的情况，同时关注东盟市场受疫情的影响。
【封关影响大 核心盈利稳】
摩根大通发表研究报告，预期友邦首季营运数据或难看，料新业务价值按年下跌30%至8.18亿美元，首年标准保费下跌25%，新业务价值利润率59.7%，下跌3.9个百分点。预期友邦第二季新业务价值按年下跌24%，而2020财年则录11%跌幅。因此，将公司的目标价由原来的103元下调至91元。由於友邦稳健的核心盈利状况，随着今年下半年起中国业务的扩张，将带来潜在的上升风险，建议趁低吸纳，予「增持」评级。
瑞信预期，友邦首季新业务价值8.8亿美元，按年以实际汇率及固定汇率计分别倒退25%及24%，市场则预计以实际汇率计按年倒退26%至8.68亿美元。该行料本港市场於上半年仍是主要弱势市场，主要由於封关令内地游客无法到本港签保单。
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本网综合8间券商料友邦2020年首季新业务价值介乎8.18亿美元至9.12亿美元，较2019年首季11.69亿美元，按年下跌22%至30%，中位数为8.63亿美元，按年倒退26.2%。
券商│今年首季新业务价值预测│按年变幅(按实质汇率(AER)计)
银河-联昌│9.12亿美元│-22%
大和│8.89亿美元│-24%
瑞信│8.8亿美元│-24.7%
高盛│8.68亿美元│-25.7%
摩根士丹利│8.57亿美元│-26.7%
中金│8.29亿美元│-29%
摩根大通│8.18亿美元│-30%
美银证券│8.18亿美元│-30%
按友邦2019年首季新业务价值11.69亿美元推算
综合3间券商料友邦今年首季年化新保费预测介乎13.7亿至14.31亿美元，较2019年首季18.28亿美元，按年下滑21.7%至25%。
券商│今年首季年化新保费预测│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│14.31亿美元│-21.7%
高盛│14.08亿美元│-22.9%
摩根大通│13.7亿美元│-25%
按友邦2019年首季新业务价值18.27亿美元推算
综合2间券商料友邦今年首季新业务价值利润率预测介乎59.7%至60%，较2019年首季63.6%按年下滑3.6个百分点至3.9个百分点。
券商│今年首季新业务价值利润率预测│按年变幅
美银证券│60%│下跌3.6个百分点
摩根大通│59.7%│下跌3.9个百分点
按友邦2019年首季新业务价值利润率63.6%推算
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