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《大行報告》大摩料恆生(00011.HK)首季核心收入穩定 但預期信貸損失上升
阿思達克 04-28 14:32
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,匯豐控股(00005.HK)中午公布首季業績,雖然集團旗下恆生銀行(00011.HK)並無公布季績,但可從匯控旗下香港業務首季表現了解恆生的盈利狀況。大摩指匯控旗下香港業務撥備前盈利(PPOP)按年下跌13%,主要受淨交易收入疲弱所拖累,期內淨利息收入升4%,主要受貸款按年增長6%(按季升2%)所帶動。

該行指,匯控首季預期信貸損失(ECL)按年升4倍至30.3億美元,對比2019年第四季7.33億美元、2019年全年27.6億美元,令集團信貸成本水平達118個基點。

大摩指,基於匯控持有恆生大部股權權益,相信從匯控季績可反映恆生銀行業務趨勢,料恆生核心收入(淨利息收入加上手續費收入)按季大致穩定,但基於宏觀經濟預測,估計恆生預期信貸損失亦會增加。大摩重申之前預測,相信首季業績表現或為年內最強季度,料未來數季收入將迎挑戰。

該行表示,恆生公布派發2020年度第一次中期息,每股1.1元(對比2019年第一季派1.4元)。恆生指雖然本地監管機構沒有像海外監管機構一樣,要求其暫停派息,但考慮到種種不明朗因素,監管機構建議銀行應保留資金儲備以應對將來潛在的挑戰、及支持本港經濟活動。該行維持對恆生「減持」評級及目標價110元。

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