華立大學集團(01756.HK)：經調整淨利增25%，派息率達38%。維持“買入”評級
機構：華西證券
評級：買入
事件概述
公司發佈中期業績，截至 2020 年 2 月的 6 個月中期營收 3.93億、同比增長 15.9%，經調整淨利 1.61 億、同比增長 24.8%，該業績符合公司正面盈利預告不少於 20%增長的指引。公司派息 6162 萬元、摺合每股 0.051 元，按經調整淨利口徑計算其中期股息支付率達 38.3%。
分析判斷：
收入增長主要來自學費增長貢獻：（1）從就讀人數看，2020H1集團整體就讀學生人數同比增長2.1%達4.56萬人，其中華立學院/華立職業學院/華立技師學院分別同比增長 17.4%/-2.9%/-11.8%至1.78/1.98/0.8萬人。從人均費用看，2020H1集團人均半年學費及住宿費同比增長 13.4%達 0.86 萬元，其中華立學院/華立職業學院/華立技師學院分別同比增長 9.6%/13.0%/1.0%至 1.25/0.61/0.63 萬元。 （2）分拆學校來看，華立學院/華立職業學院/華立技師學院分別同比增長 28.7%/9.7%/-11%。
毛利率提升及經常性費用率下降推動公司盈利更快增長：從毛利率看，2020H1集團毛利率同比提升 1.6pct至 57.4%，主要得益校區使用率提升及人均學費上漲，其中增城/雲浮校區使用率分別提升 1.4/10pct 至 93.1%/25%。從費用率看，2020H1 集團銷售 / 剔 除 上 市 開 支 後 管理 / 財 務 費 用 率 分 別 下 降 -0.6/1.3/0.5pct 至 3.0%/11.7%/5.8%，銷售費用增長主要來自技師學院擴招初中生、邀請學生到校參觀。由此從經調整業績看，2020H1 集團經調整淨利同比增長 24.8%至 1.61 億，經調整淨利率同比提升 2.9pct至40.9%。
投資建議
維持FY2020/2021/2022EPS為0.27/0.35/0.44 元，對應 PE 分別為 10/8/6X，公司看點在於：（1）考慮所處廣東省毛入學率提升空間較大，因此伴隨增城、雲浮校區擴建，以及江門校區計劃申請新的大專牌照、華立技師學院改變學制後將迎來招生增長；（2）本科學費每兩年提升 10%，期待職業學院升級本科落地；（3）獨立學院轉設加速，脱鈎後有望增厚業績；（4）在手現金充裕，未來存在併購預期；（5）淨利率潛在改善。綜合公司低估值及較高成長空間，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
招生情況不達預期風險、轉設進度不及預期風險、政策風險、首發解禁風險、 系統性風險。
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