騰訊控股(00700.HK):細水長流,萬業互聯,維持“買入”評級
機構:申港證券
評級:買入
投資摘要:
公司核心競爭力在於極致產品力基礎上積累的超級流量,以及長期在開放生態中互聯互通帶來的多維變現。
C端細水長流:Freemium基因穩固敵手難尋,高流量+低 ARPU 築就高壁壘。
遊戲:高 MAU +ARPU 穩定造就世界龍頭。中國市場增速領先全球,手遊升級全球主戰場:1)作為世界龍頭,騰訊領跑高增速、大體量手遊賽道,國內發展土壤優質(超級流量壁壘,用户習慣上偏愛手遊,尤其是新遊戲)。2)國人遊戲支出能力持續提升(2015-2018年 CAGR 40%,對比美、歐、日 17%、0%、14%) ,消費水平超越歐盟、直追日美。預期騰訊手遊用户數將持續攀升,新遊戲備受矚目,ARPU穩定但與網易相比仍有巨大提升空間,出海帶動業績增長亦可期。騰訊遊戲板塊 2020年整體收入預計增速在13%。
數字服務:付費是大勢所趨。對照國際經驗,受益於國內版權意識提高和付費習慣形成,MAU、付費率、ARPPU均有望提高,在線視頻、音樂娛樂、在線閲讀等數字業務增速未來三年預期增速在 20%以上。
B端萬業互聯:社交賦能多元場景商業變現,產業互聯新願景穩步實現中。
廣告:社交廣告是未來主要增長方向,視頻廣告行業輝煌不再。從 DAU、信息量、加載率、CPM 四個指標分拆社交廣告空間,我們認為朋友圈廣告投放最為剋制(加載率遠低於競爭對手, 50%E), 小程序作為一個超級 APP入口增速最快(77%E)、公眾號增速進入穩定期(30%E) 。疫情影響有限,但媒體廣告可能繼續維持負增速,2020年廣告業務收入預計增速在 35%。
金融科技與企業服務:戰略突破與轉型的開始。1)金融科技:移動支付浪潮勢不可擋,憑藉流量優勢理財通在線下消費和個人交易領域更佔優勢;在資金轉移渠道上,理財通逐漸縮小與支付寶之間的服務差異;年齡分佈上理財通用户更具老齡化特徵,更大概率吸引資產規模增速更快的高淨值客羣投資。2)雲計算:全球公有云市場增速進入 20%以下時代,國內起步較晚目前整體增速高於全球約 10pct,IaaS仍是增長最快的細分領域。全球雲計算市場格局穩定且集中度有望進一步提高。騰訊目前國內市場份額僅次於阿里雲,追趕有力,產業互聯網政策利好且優勢領域發力明顯。預期板塊增速30%以上。
投資建議:公司擁有流量上的超級壁壘,消費互聯網細水長流的變現模式根基深厚,廣告、金融科技與企服增速亮眼,B端延伸融合有望實現萬業互聯,我們預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤為 1,119 億/1,324 億/1,549 億元,EPS為 11.71/13.86/16.21元,當前股價對應 P/E為 35X/30X/25X,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示:用户增長不及預期;疫情對宏觀經濟的衝擊;股市整體低迷
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