中國特種纖維(00285.HK)公司公告點評：Q4毛利率顯著改善，5G有望帶來更好推動，維持優於大市評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優於大市
公司公告2019年業績。2019年公司實現營收530.0億元，同比增長29.2%；實現毛利39.6億元，同比下降5.2%，毛利率7.5%，同比下降2.7pct；母公司擁有人應占溢利16.0億元，同比下降27.0%；淨利潤率3.0%，同比下降2.3pct；每股盈利0.71元。
Q4單季度環比顯着改善。單季度來看，19Q4實現營收146.3億元，同比增長26.6%，環比下降3.2%；實現毛利潤13.5億元，同比增長47.4%，環比增長26.8%；毛利率9.2%，同比增1.3pct，環比增2.2pct；淨利潤率3.9%，同比升0.6pct，環比升0.9pct。
分業務來看：公司手機筆電業務營收454.1億元，同比增長27.9%，其中零部件收入185.6億元，同比增長3.1%，組裝收入268.5億元，同比增長53.4%；新型智能產品營收60.3億元，同比增長38.8%；汽車智能系統業務收入15.9億元，同比增長33.9%。
金屬中框：安卓份額升至四成，5G手機滲透有望帶動改善。公司在金屬部件繼續保持行業龍頭地位，市場份額進一步提升，為四成左右安卓金屬手機提供服務。公司玻璃及陶瓷業務頗具規模，成為行業前三的全製程方案提供商。根據比亞迪電子公眾號，公司全面參與5G項目，全球已上市5G手機中，每10部就有8部採用了比亞迪電子的技術。我們認為：隨着5G手機滲透率提升，金屬中框的需求和價值量會有一定提升，公司有望受益於該發展趨勢。
組裝：持續深化國內大客户合作，海外大客户突破性進展。公司為國內大客户提供整套產品解決方案，整機份額亦得到大幅度提升，同時合作產品類型不斷豐富。海外大客户：2019年在核心產品線取得突破性進展，業務合作駛入高速增長通道。
盈利預測與投資建議。我們預計2020-2022年實現歸母淨利潤20.7、26.1和30.1億元，同比增速為29.8%、25.8%和15.4%。考慮到公司在海外大客户發展具有比較大的潛力，以及2020年疫情會對下游需求造成一定影響，但在2021年會回升至正常水平，結合同行業可比公司，1）PE：我們給予公司合理PE估值區間為對應2020年13-15X，對應11.96-13.80元/股；2）PB：我們給予2020年PB1.8-2X，對應13.82-15.36元/股。結合兩種方式，對應合理價值區間12.89-14.58元/股，按照1港元=0.90元人民幣估算，對應合理價值區間為14.32-16.20港元/股，維持優於大市評級。
風險提示：智能手機行業出貨量不及預期。
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