特步國際(01368.HK)：業績出色高股息，長期空間可期，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績穩步提升，現金週轉改善
2019年，公司實現收入81.83億元，+28.2%；經營利潤12.34億元，+18.2%；歸母淨利潤7.28億元，+10.8%。公司優化費用，在併購一次性影響下仍保持較好的利潤率水平，實現毛利率43.4%，經營利潤率15.1%，淨利率8.9%。並且，公司現金週轉狀況進一步改善，存貨週轉天數77天，同比-3天；應收賬款週轉天數96天，同比-9天。
渠道健康，主品牌保持快速增長
2019年全年與Q4，公司主品牌零售銷售增長20%+，同店銷售實現低雙位數增長，折扣率維持在7.5-8折，庫銷比維持在4。主品牌保持專業運動時尚定位，拓展籃球領域，在林書豪系列帶動下有望將基數較低的籃球業務加快發展，提升品牌形象同時改善產品毛利率與單價。
看好疫情後業績反彈，長期多品牌有望加速增長
公司現金充足，通過折扣、換貨、延長賬期、線上銷售等方式與經銷商共渡難關。預計1月/2月流水同比20%/-80%，目前已經恢復60%左右。公司對夏季銷售具有信心，五一節和“618”有望實現流水大幅增長。品牌覆蓋大眾運動（特步）、時尚運動（KSwiss、Palladium）和專業運動（Saucony、Merrell）三大市場，有望協同開拓成長空間。
風險提示
1.宏觀經濟與消費需求大幅下行；2.新品牌發展不及預期，加大利潤拖累；3.市場的系統性風險。
投資建議：高股息具安全邊際，看好短期復甦與長期發展
公司19年業績表現出色，20年疫情風險可控，長期主品牌與新品牌均具較多增長動力。我們預計公司20-22年淨利潤增長-3.4%/28.2%/17.8%，EPS分別為0.28/0.36/0.42元（原預測20-21年0.31/0.39元），對應PE分別為7.5/5.8/4.9，當前股息率達到8%。
對應2020年12-13倍PE，公司合理估值在3.8-4.1（原為4.2-4.5）港元，維持“買入”評級。
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