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《大行報告》美銀證券下調內房股目標價 首選龍湖(00960.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、金茂(00817.HK)及世房(00813.HK)
阿思達克 03-23 10:31
美銀證券發表報告指,雖然看好內房商銷情將在4月末回復正常,但環球市況不穩定性及離岸債券息率波動仍令板塊短期受壓,相信發展商現繼續對銷售目標採取較保守態度。

報告指,內房高息債券平均到期收益率已上升至16.7%,但同時在岸市場相對保持穩定,3月份新發行債券的平均收益率下降至4.9%,對比去年12月中旬為6.2%。該行預期,今年新建商品住宅銷售量按年下跌7%,上市房企合約銷售額將增長8%,較年初及2月份預測的上升15%及12%有所下調,並將2020年每股盈利預測調低5%,2021-2022年平均削3%。

美銀表示,回顧2008年金融海嘯內房發展商合約銷售額升幅大幅收窄,13間上市房企中有9間削減派息,相信今年內房採取審慎態度亦有可能削減派息,將平均目標價下調11%。

但該行相信,貨幣環境仍然寬鬆,內地人購房需求只是被壓抑延後,考慮到離岸債券市場仍動蕩,傾向選擇業務平衡性較好的企業,首選龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、金茂(00817.HK)、世茂(00813.HK);認為碧桂園(02007.HK)、富力(02777.HK)及合景泰富(01813.HK)表現跑輸大市。

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