信义玻璃(0868.HK)：龙头业绩稳健，产能扩张持续推进，维持“审慎增持”的评级，目标价 11.51 港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：11.51 港元
投资要点
事件： 公司披露 2019 年业绩：公司收益同比增加 1.5%至 162.59 亿港元；公司股本权 益持有人应占纯利同比增加 5.7%至 44.78 亿港元；每股基本盈利为 111.8 港仙； 拟末期派息每股 30 港仙，全年派息比率为 49.3%。
点评：
（1）19 下半年，在地产竣工回暖的大环境下，公司浮法、建玻业务量价齐升， 汽玻业务稳定增长。2019 下半年，公司收益同比增长 6.6%，浮法玻璃同比增 3.5%，汽车玻璃同比增 7.6%，建筑玻璃同比增 12.5%。我们预计，浮法玻璃 主要是产品单价增长所贡献，汽车玻璃和建筑玻璃主要是销量增长。
（2）受益于浮法玻璃价格回暖和人民币贬值效应，19 下半年，三大业务综合 毛利同比增 8.0%，毛利率升至 36.3%，环比/同比均有改善。
（3）实际税率降至 10.6%，前值 14.5%。主要由于上半年出售及摊薄信义光能 的收益是免税的，马六甲工厂仍在享受税务优惠待遇。 我们认为，信义在国内的生产基地战略优势、规模效应、垂直整合及清洁能源 方面的优势无人能出其由，公司有着较强的竞争力，财务报表可管中窥豹。随 着信义产能扩张计划的落地，公司有望实现国内及国际市场份额的同步扩张。 20E 浮法玻璃有效产能同比增加 10.7%，汽车玻璃有效产能同比增加 11.1%。
我们的观点：立足短期，较高的库存压力是行业面临的主要压力，纯碱价格及 后续燃料成本下降有望缓解玻璃成本压力。立足长期，我们认为经济下行压力 下，房企融资环境升温，竣工数据仍有望延续 19Q4 的良好态势，20 和 21 年 会是竣工的两个大年。公司是竣工端复苏的最优标的。 我们维持“审慎增持”的评级，目标价 11.51 港元，预计公司 2020-2022 年实 现归母净利润分别为 46.41 亿、51.63 亿港元和 56.10 亿港元，最新收盘价对应 2020 年预测 PE 为 7.2X，股息率 6.8%。
风险提示：需求下滑、海外扩张不及预期、反倾销风险、汇率风险
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