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长安汽车(000625.SZ):蓝鲸平台加持,自主品牌延续高景气度
格隆汇 01-08 14:56

作者:国盛汽车研究小组

投资要点

事件。1月8日公司公布12月销量,12月公司长安系品牌销售150361辆,同比增长35%,环比增长11.6%;长安福特12月销售17909辆,同比+0.6%;长安马自达12月销量12598,同比9.2%.2019年全年收官,公司共计销量175.99万辆,同比下跌15.17%;长安马自达全年销量13.36万辆,同比-19.66%;长安福特全年销量18.40万辆,同比-51.3%.

自主品牌维持高景气度。12月公司长安系品牌销售150361辆,同比增长35%。其中CS75系列单月销售28620辆,同比增长287.5%,根据公司产能布局我们判断CS75Plus系列销量约20000-22000辆;CS35系列销售16389辆,同比增长20.8%;CS55系列销售11148辆,同比增长32%;新款长安逸动销售10325辆,同比增长97.9%。

蓝鲸发动机性能优异,提升公司产品力。公司蓝鲸发动机2.0T产品搭载在CS75Plus上,蓝鲸NE平台搭载在CS35及新款逸动上。从动力参数来看,2.0T及1.4T、1.5T产品在同排量发动机中,峰值扭矩、最大功率、最大扭矩转速方面均处于行业领先方面。公司发布的蓝鲸NE动力平台,是中国品牌首创的模块化技术平台,设计兼容1.0——1.8L排量,通用化率高达98%。后续有望继续推出更多产品,将显著增强公司自主品牌汽车产品力。

马自达、福特同比双双转正。长安福特12月销售17909辆,同比+0.6%,环比改善24pct,自8月份以来(8月为-38.3%)降幅持续收窄,边际逐月改善;长安马自达销量12598辆,同比9.2%,增速改善29pct,恢复正增长。8月以来全新福克斯 Active、锐界ST/ST-Line、金牛座等新车型集中上市,随着新车逐渐放量,预计将推动长安福特销量持续改善。此外12月翼虎迭代产品锐击上市,以及首款国产化林肯车型上市,我们看好长期福特市占率修复。

剥离亏损资产,显著增厚业绩。公司1月2日发布公告将所持有的长安PSA 50%股权全部转让给前海锐致,转让完成后将不再持有长安PSA股权。预计本次出售股权事项将在2020年增加税前利润13.52亿元。同时长安PSA 2019年前三季度长安PSA实现净利润-22.3亿元,亏损严重,预计剥离亏损资产后将显著改善上市公司业绩。

盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司19-21年归母净利润为-1.46/41.2/68.7亿元,对应20-21年PE为12.5/7.5倍,维持“买入”评级。

风险提示:新车推出速度或不及预期。

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