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美聯黃建業:樓市具「牛市底」有上行空間 料全年最多升價5%
阿思達克 01-07 10:39

美聯集團(01200.HK)主席黃建業指出,持續兩年的政經震盪波及樓市,令樓價及成交持續波動,當中樓價已連續兩年先升後跌,是為史上首次出現「M型走勢」。惟相信香港最壞時刻已過,預期2020年樓市將展新氣象,出現多個變化,料樓價走勢轉為「U型」,上半年先跌後穩,如下半年經濟情況明朗即有機會回升,預計全年樓價最多升約5%,長遠看升。

他又預期新一年樓市或有以下轉變:新盤熱賣帶動,樓市「陽春早至」,來去匆匆;放寬按揭釋放換樓鏈,中小型樓帶動大市;及租金帶動商舖市況持續向下調整,民生舖抗跌力較高。

黃氏強調,本港樓市基礎穩健,具「牛市底」,與沙士時期不可同日而語,現時低息環境持續,加上供應長期不到位,皆是對樓市的有力支持。去年《施政報告》提出放寬按揭保險上限,更直接增加首置人士的購買力。樓價本身具備上升空間,只是受經濟因素拖累,影響港人入市信心。

現時樓市處於「牛熊分界」,樓價「牛皮整固」短線受壓,難以向上突破,是在「休養生息,健康調整」。

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