大家樂集團(00341.HK):香港業務不確定性仍然存在,但大灣區的擴張步入正軌,維持“收集”評級,目標價21.20港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:21.20港元
香港業務陷入困境。公司2020財年上半年收入同比小幅增長1.6%至42.64億港元。大家樂位於香港的速食餐飲業務同比增長2.2%,而休閒餐飲收入同比下降4.1%,系近期的社會事件所致。儘管報告期內人民幣貶值4.5%,但內地業務仍表現穩健,同比增長3.6%。公司2020財年上半年毛利率同比下降1.7個百分點至11.7%,因公司推出了更多超值套餐與促銷活動,以維持銷售規模及市場份額。公司2020財年上半年股東淨利同比下降34.5%至1.5億港元,與先前發佈的盈利預警相符。
香港業務仍面臨較大不確定性,但大灣區業務擴張駛入快車道。嚴峻的外部環境對香港餐飲業構成顯著影響。在10月與11月,當地緊張的局勢有所升温,但鑑於近日出現緩和跡象,香港餐飲業料將有所改善。香港政治環境的不確定性仍會影響公司的經營前景。此外,公司將加速在中國大陸的擴張並將新開設16家餐廳門店。
因為更差的盈利預測,我們下調目標價至21.20港元。當前股價已經反映了對大家樂的悲觀情緒,我們認為其快餐業務在最惡劣的情況下仍然展現出極其堅韌的表現。因此,我們維持“收集”評級但下調目標價至21.20港元,相當於29.6倍、26.8倍和25.7倍2019財年、2020財年和2021財年市盈率。

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