港股策略:阿里巴巴何時獲納入恆指?何時進入港股通?
機構:中投證券
阿里巴巴(9988)輕易符合基本要求,但有兩大問題有待解決。恆指服務公司於每季度完結後都會檢討恆指成份股,一般於8周內完成。要獲納入恆指,必須達到上市時間、市值及成交金額的要求(見表二)。按阿里巴巴176港元招股價(假設超額配售全部行使,下同),加上美國存托股部份,上市後總市值達到3.6萬億港元,比騰訊(700)高14%,成為港股最高市值股份。僅香港招股部份的市值達1,012億港元,已高於8只恆指成份股,所以它將輕易達到市值要求。以其規模,最短只需要上市3個月便可以加入恆指,而成交金額相信會龐大並符合相關規定。
雖然符合納入恆指的基本要求,但阿里巴巴短期內仍無法成為成份股,因為目前恆指僅容許「在港主要上市」、「同股同權」的企業。集團於2014年已在美國發行預託證券上市,今年才來香港作第二上市,所以暫時並不符合「在港主要上市」的要求。另一方面,由於阿里巴巴採用同股不同權的股東架構,所以也不達到「同股同權」的要求。這兩大問題令集團不能馬上成為恆指成份股。
最快明年9月才可正式成為恆指成份股
在香港、美國雙重主要上市。集團的主要上市地在美國,香港只是作第二上市,兩地股份數目差距甚遠,香港發行的股份數目,佔總數最多隻有2.7%,其餘97.3%是在美國的存托股。阿里巴巴的股權架構一大特點,就是港、美股份可以相互轉換,1股美國存托股可換成8股香港普通股。重要的是,若香港佔兩地的交易總額(以美元計)55%的話,聯交所將視阿里巴巴在港作雙重主要上市,而非第二上市,這樣集團便符合成為恆指成份股的資格。我們預計將有大量股份從美國轉到香港,令在港成交金額大幅上升,增加阿里巴巴變成雙重主要上市的機會。
明年諮詢納入同股不同權股份、降金融股佔比。恆指服務公司將於明年初向市場諮詢兩個議題,1)容許納入同股不同權股份;2)降低指數中金融股比重。港股只有3只同股不同權股份,除阿里巴巴外,還有小米(1810)及美團(3690)。若放寬准入條件,以它們的市值及成交額,均可能獲納入恆指,令指數中科技股比重大幅提升。降低金融股比重方面,現時恆指有11只金融股,包括匯控(5)及內銀股等,按數量計僅佔22%,但以市值計卻佔49.3%,對恆指有重大影響。
恆指服務公司的諮詢結果,預計會在明年5月公佈,若順利通過,加上香港佔集團總成交額55%的話,最快明年6月底恆指季度將檢討納入阿里巴巴,完成後將於8月宣佈,明年9月集團才有望正式成為恆指成份股。這即是説,假若騰訊(700)在恆指的比重因阿里巴巴加入而降低,都只會於明年第3季度才出現。

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