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新東方在線(1797.HK):日臻完善,優播進擊,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-22 08:36

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

投資要點

公司成立於2005年,是新東方旗下的在線教育平台,14年從集團分拆,19年3月港股獨立上市,9月進入港股通。憑藉新東方的品牌優勢和在線教育模式迭代創新,已成長為我國領先的綜合在線教育服務供應商。FY19總營收9.19億元,四年CAGR達40%,總付費人次達218萬。

優播模式初步跑通,成為主要增長引擎。截至今年5月末優播已進駐63個城市、FY19培訓人次達到23萬,未來三年計劃每年新進駐50個城市,到2022年完成200家以上的地級市覆蓋。網點快速拓展及前期網點培育成熟有望驅動業績翻倍增長。(1)率先定位三四線廣闊市場。三四線城市潛在用户將近1.4億人體量,參培率僅40%+,且現階段主要競爭對手尚未實現下沉,先行者具備先發優勢。(2)“線下體驗店+線上直播小班課”模式,實現低成本獲客。獲客成本平均每人次16元左右,主要靠品牌、口碑獲客,兼有地推、進校等方式。通過特價入口班引流,針對部分年級(如五年級、初二等)在寒暑假設置入口班,續班率在20%以上,起到良好的引流效果。(3)師資儲備豐富,教研能力強。目前教師團隊約500人,大多數教師在北京,同時在武漢已建立1個教師培訓中心(已有100人以上教師儲備)。

優播單網點模型和敏感性分析:優播模式相比傳統線下小班,授課效果相近,且有成本節約,一是節省教學場地的租金,二是提升教師週轉效率,節省教師成本;主要增加的成本為直播平台使用費。我們認為影響單網點爬坡和利潤的主要因素為續班率、班均人數、教師週轉次數。經我們的測算,優播單網點第1~5年收入在60~70/260-300/570~700/890~1100/1200~1550萬元;利潤端,拓展早期單網點開業第5年營業利潤在400~500萬,而在成熟後單網點開業第5年營業利潤在500~600萬。

投資建議:背靠新東方集團,天然具有品牌優勢。上市後業務條線和組織架構進行調整升級,並收購東方優播的剩餘股權,發展重心凸顯。K12業務將成為公司未來主要的增長引擎,其中優播模式在三四線初步跑通,未來網點、學生人次、續班率、班均人數、教師利用率提高都將助力業績翻倍式增長。我們預計公司整體在FY20、21仍虧損,在FY22將開始盈利,預計FY20合理市值為255億港元,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。

風險提示:政策監管趨嚴帶來合規、師資等方面成本的提升;市場競爭加劇帶來的獲客成本提升。

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