騰訊控股(0700.HK):Fintech貢獻日益彰顯,目標價399.8港元,維持“審慎增持”評級
機構:興業證券
評級:審慎增持
目標價:399.8港元
投資要點
業績增長符合我們預期,低於市場預期。公司2019年3Q總收入為927億元人民幣(單位下同),同比增長21%,符合我們預期,但低於Bloomberg一致預期約1.7%。此外,3Q18美團點評IPO所得公允價值收益較高,導致該類收益在3Q19下滑較明顯,因而使得歸母淨利潤同比下滑13%至203.82億,而在Non-GAAP標準下,公司歸母淨利潤同比增長了24%至244.1億。
遊戲業務增長基本符合預期。3Q遊戲收入(含抽成)為358億元(YoY+12%),其中手遊因頭部遊戲表現強勁疊加海外新增收入導致該業務收入(含抽成)達到243億元(YoY+25%);端遊收入下滑7%至115億元,基本符合預期。我們認為接下3個季度手遊將繼續強勢,預計增速均將超過25%,另外因《英雄聯盟》的收入遞延,預計後幾個季度端遊將略有回暖。
金融科技及企業服務超預期,營收佔比逼近遊戲。金融科技及企業服務收入同比增長36%至人民幣229億元,超我們預期約3.5%,收入佔比環比提高2個pcts至27.5%(遊戲:29.4%),此外雲業務同比增長80%至47億元。
廣告:媒體廣告低於預期,社交類廣告增速加快。3Q19,網絡廣告收入同比僅增13%至184億元,符合我們預期。其中社交類廣告因庫存和曝光量增長使其收入同比增長32%至147億,高於預期;媒體廣告則因劇集遞延,導致該收入同比下滑高達28%至37億元,低於我們預期。我們預計媒體廣告將繼續承壓,預計4Q同比&環比繼續下滑,但社交類廣告增速將維持30%左右的水平,我們看好微信廣告庫存釋放帶來的加速變現。
投資建議:目標價399.8港元,維持“審慎增持”評級。我們將19/20年收入微調至3,732/4,611億元,Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤微調至956/1,178億元,基於DCF模型微調目標價至399.8港元(原目標價:392.4港元),對應19/20年Non-GAAP35/28倍PE,繼續維持“審慎增持”評級。
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