騰訊控股(00700.HK):新業務發展快速,廣告下行,維持“增持”評級,目標估值區間380至400港元
機構:國信證券
評級:增持
目標估值區間:380至400港元
收入低於預期,廣告增速繼續下行
三季度收入同比增長21%,至972億元,低於市場預期。今年廣告業務從一季度就略低於預期,三季度加速下行。這反應了:1、來自頭條的競爭;2、中國宏觀經濟承壓的現狀。三季度廣告收入增速僅為13%,創公司上市以來的新低水平。其中社交廣告32%的增長,媒體廣告同比下降28%。按照我們對於宏觀經濟的判斷,料Q4的廣告增速將成為增速的低點。
遊戲韌性強,海外遊戲將有望成為新的增長點
遊戲業務保持穩定的增長,手機遊戲同比增長25%,網絡遊戲同比增長11%。主要是王者榮耀的基本盤穩定,《和平精英》亦獲得不菲收益,遞延收入較Q2有明顯提升,三季度以來,海外遊戲增長較快,《PUBGMOBILE》的月活躍賬户數同比增長一倍,《CallofDutyMobile》下載量超過1億。
支付與雲業務保持較快增長
三季度支付與雲保持了較快的增長,增速為36%,同時,雲收入同比增長80%至47億元。我們看到,隨着今年支付業務競爭趨緩,騰訊支付寶在商户返傭折扣降低,同時公司積極開展增值業務,使得支付業務毛利率穩健提升,這為明後年支付業務盈利的規模提升奠定基礎。
投資建議
我們小幅下調2019-2020年收入增速為22%(0pct)、20%(-1pct),淨利潤增速至23%、17%(持平),預計廣告業務觸底約在Q4,2019、2020年的EPS為港幣11.1元、13.7元,考慮人民幣升值,且經濟觸底回升廣告將回暖,我們維持增持評級,及維持目標估值區間380至400港幣,當前股價對應2019-2020年的PE為27X,23X。
風險提示
宏觀經濟的不確定性對廣告業務帶來的不利影響,遊戲增長不達預期。
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