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維達國際(03331.HK):雙十一線上銷售保持第一,給予“買入”評級,目標價18.00港元
格隆匯 11-14 09:43

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:18.00港元

維達雙十一紙巾線上銷售保持第一。雙十一期間維達品牌的紙巾線上銷售在全電商平台保持第一。得寶銷售在高端紙巾品類取得第一。添寧連續七年在天貓超市成人紙尿褲品類實現第一。維達的Libresse和多康同樣在雙十一期間實現強勁表現。上述強勁表現説明維達有着更強的消費者認知度和線上營銷能力。維達收穫了其多年在品牌和線上渠道建設方面投入的成果。

強勁的銷售增長可能會在2019年第4季度延續但盈利能力存在不確定性。基於強勁的雙十一銷售,我們預計維達將會在2019年第4季度延續高速增長。我們預計低木漿價格將會在2019年第4季度和2020年上半年繼續改善維達的毛利率。我們還沒有看到木漿價格的拐點。但雙十一期間較大的折扣將會影響公司的毛利率,以及付給電商平台的更高的流量費用將會提高銷售成本。綜合來看2019年第4季度的盈利能力可能不會超過第3季度。

隨着維達的品牌影響力、產品結構和線上推廣能力更加突出,公司的競爭力進一步加強,使得維達可以在木漿價格週期變動中保持議價能力。短期內因為大規模價格戰還沒有出現,我們預計低木漿價格仍將大幅改善其盈利能力。因此,我們上調公司評級至“買入”,維持18.00港元的目標價,相當於22.0倍、18.3倍和15.8倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率。

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