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騰訊控股(00700.HK):長期拐點正在接近,重要的是金融業務!給予“買入”評級,目標價398.50港元
格隆匯 11-11 09:40

機構:國金證券

評級:買入

目標價:398.50港元

基本結論

過去6個月,騰訊股價累計下跌15%,跑輸恆生指數7%。然而,我們認為騰訊已經找到了下一個戰略增長點——金融科技;在微信小程序的帶動下,企業服務、智慧零售等B端業務也將帶來驚喜。遊戲業務在2020年仍是產品上升週期,在長期也找到了新的突破口。最大的軟肋是廣告業務,但是並不是致命傷。現在,終於再次到了買入騰訊的時機。

我們對騰訊的金融科技業務進行詳盡拆分,從支付GMV、貨幣化率、非支付業務、成本率等多個角度測算。結論是:騰訊在移動支付市場份額上佔據了壓倒性優勢,有效貨幣化率正在提升,高利潤的理財和貸款業務發展速度很快。2020年,金融科技與企業服務業務將產生收入1406億元、毛利563億元(其中毛利全部來自金融科技),成為與遊戲並列的支柱業務。

微信是金融科技業務成功的立足點,也是雲計算、智慧零售等創新業務的支點。微信小程序不但是騰訊進軍電商、線下零售的王牌,還促使騰訊雲在PaaS/SaaS業務上取得先手。騰訊廣告業務的復甦,歸根結底還是要靠微信;我們並不贊成所謂“微信用户時長正在下降”的説法。

2019年是騰訊手遊業務的大年,2020年也是——《地下城與勇士》《英雄聯盟》將成為“端轉手”時代最後的爆款;通過併購和推出熱門IP產品,騰訊在歐美遊戲市場的影響力不斷提升。我們認為,2020年騰訊手遊收入的增速完全可以超過2019年。在長期,騰訊積極佈局海外、VR/AR和互動影像敍事等戰略方向,從而保證在下一個世代繼續領跑。

投資建議

從Non-GAAPP/E看,騰訊的估值處於2016年以來的最低水平。受到存款備付金上繳的影響,市場低估了金融科技業務的實際增速,也尚未理解海外遊戲市場的進展。市場還沒有充分體現騰訊對外投資的實際價值。

我們估計騰訊2019-21年收入CAGR21.7%,Non-GAAP淨利潤CAGR26.1%;Non-GAAPEPS分別為人民幣9.95/13.06/16.31元。基於SOTP法,我們賦予騰訊核心業務23倍2020年P/E,加上投資公司價值,得到目標價398.50港元。將評級從“中性”上調至“買入”。

風險因素:監管風險,新業務風險,技術替代風險,戰略投資風險。

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