騰訊控股(700.HK) 3Q19業績前瞻:遊戲繼續強勁,媒體廣告逆風,維持“審慎增持”評級,目標價392.4港元
機構:興業證券
評級:審慎增持
目標價:392.4港元
投資要點
3Q19業績前瞻:騰訊控股(0700.HK)將於11月13日公佈3Q19業績。我們預計3Q19公司收入同比增長約21%至975億(原預測:1,010億,下調3.5%),低於Bloomberg一致預期約1.7%,預計公司Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤249億,NonGaapEPS為2.6元。
遊戲:庫存釋放,頭部遊戲霸榜,預計手遊保持強勁增長。我們維持3Q手遊28%的增速,並預計端遊將同比下滑9%;主要《王者榮耀》、《PUBGMobile》含國服)的良好表現、新遊的帶來的增量收入以及充足的遞延收入。我們預計3Q遊戲整體增速為14%。
廣告繼續逆風,社交類廣告inline,媒體類廣告維持負增長。我們下調3Q19廣告業務增速至13%(此前預測:18%),預計由於受宏觀因素和內容延期上線影響,媒體廣告同比下滑16%;另外預計社交類廣告增速約26%。
金融科技:未來支柱行業,看好支付業務繼續滲透。目前騰訊移動支付份額已近40%,我們認為小程序場景的滲透將繼續促使騰訊提升支付份額,在支付頻次上佔據優勢,並預計3Q金融科技業務同比增長約33%。
投資建議:維持“審慎增持”評級。我們將19/20年收入由3,809/4,744億下調至3,734/4,600億元,Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤微調至949/1,151億元,基於DCF模型下調目標價至392.4港元(原目標價:407.4港元),對應19/20年Non-GAAP34/28倍PE,繼續維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示:政策監管風險;宏觀經濟疲軟;遊戲業務增速放緩;廣告業務不及預期風險,騰訊系產品用户時長下降風險。
![](https://hq-prod-news-server-1257884527.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/photo/6599468009574760702_1.png)
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
![](/hk/assets/image/code.84ab0b.png)
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.