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腾讯控股(700.HK) 3Q19业绩前瞻:游戏继续强劲,媒体广告逆风,维持“审慎增持”评级,目标价392.4港元
格隆汇 11-11 09:26

机构:兴业证券

评级:审慎增持

目标价:392.4港元

投资要点

3Q19业绩前瞻:腾讯控股(0700.HK)将于11月13日公布3Q19业绩。我们预计3Q19公司收入同比增长约21%至975亿(原预测:1,010亿,下调3.5%),低于Bloomberg一致预期约1.7%,预计公司Non-GAAP归母净利润249亿,NonGaapEPS为2.6元。

游戏:库存释放,头部游戏霸榜,预计手游保持强劲增长。我们维持3Q手游28%的增速,并预计端游将同比下滑9%;主要《王者荣耀》、《PUBGMobile》含国服)的良好表现、新游的带来的增量收入以及充足的递延收入。我们预计3Q游戏整体增速为14%。

广告继续逆风,社交类广告inline,媒体类广告维持负增长。我们下调3Q19广告业务增速至13%(此前预测:18%),预计由于受宏观因素和内容延期上线影响,媒体广告同比下滑16%;另外预计社交类广告增速约26%。

金融科技:未来支柱行业,看好支付业务继续渗透。目前腾讯移动支付份额已近40%,我们认为小程序场景的渗透将继续促使腾讯提升支付份额,在支付频次上占据优势,并预计3Q金融科技业务同比增长约33%。

投资建议:维持“审慎增持”评级。我们将19/20年收入由3,809/4,744亿下调至3,734/4,600亿元,Non-GAAP归母净利润微调至949/1,151亿元,基于DCF模型下调目标价至392.4港元(原目标价:407.4港元),对应19/20年Non-GAAP34/28倍PE,继续维持“审慎增持”评级。

风险提示:政策监管风险;宏观经济疲软;游戏业务增速放缓;广告业务不及预期风险,腾讯系产品用户时长下降风险。

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