聯想集團(0992.HK)投資價值分析報告:PC龍頭繼續受益行業週期回暖,拓展IDC構築中長期增長點,首次給予“增持”評級,目標價6.5港元
機構:光大證券
評級:增持
目標價:6.5港元
公司是全球領先智能設備產品及服務提供商,PC 業務受益行業回暖及結構 升級趨勢有望維持穩定增長,移動業務嚴控成本以期盈虧平衡,IDC 業務 拓展高增長細分領域、構築中長期增長點,驅動整體業績維持平穩增長。
◆PC 業務:公司龍頭地位穩固,受益行業週期回暖趨勢持續 Intel 供應危機緩解、PC 創新迭代加速有望驅動本輪 PC 市場出貨量回暖趨 勢持續。公司 PC 出貨份額穩居市場前二,2Q19 出貨量份額達 25%躍居全 球第一,龍頭地位穩固。受益產品結構升級以及公司供應鏈動態管理策略, 公司 PC 業務表現優於同業,我們預計 19-22E 財年營收 CAGR 為 5.9%。 綜合主要元器件成本及產品結構變化,PC 業務利潤率有望維持穩定。
◆移動業務:後排廠商難以突圍,嚴控成本縮減虧損 公司智能手機業務作為後排廠商與頭部廠商的差距擴大,出貨量份額由 2014 年的 4.8%降至 2018 年的 2.2%。公司通過專注美洲市場佔據一席之 地,鑑於其主動調整退出部分國家市場,預計 19-22E 財年營收 CAGR 為 -5.7%,有望於 20 財年實現盈虧平衡。
◆IDC 業務:行業發展空間廣闊,構築中長期增長點 IDC 市場於 2H19 回暖,後期 5G 商用、雲計算髮展將推動 IDC 建設需求 持續釋放。公司位居全球 X86 服務器市場第四位,市佔率為 5.7%,維持 較強上升勢頭。公司以傳統企業級市場為業務基礎,重點發展超大規模、 軟件定義基礎設施、高性能計算三大細分市場。FY2Q20 由於記憶體單價 下滑導致營收下滑;伴隨 IDC 市場需求整體回暖及新訂單貢獻,公司 IDC 業務有望逐季改善,預計 19-22E 財年營收 CAGR 為 3.8%。
◆估值與評級:我們預計公司20-22E財年淨利潤為747/826/924百萬美元, 對應 19-22E 財年淨利潤 CAGR 為 16%。公司相比華碩和宏碁等後排廠商 有望更大程度受益於 PC 行業整體回暖,收入端成長確定性佳,而未來淨利 潤放量情況則有賴於其規模效益釋放及內部成本費用管控情況。參考港股 市場硬件銷售可比公司 20 年(對應聯想 21 財年)7-14 倍 PE 區間,台股、 美股市場 PC 同業 20 年 8-15 倍 PE 區間,給予其 21 財年 12 倍 PE(對應 20 財年 13.3 倍 PE),對應目標價為 6.5 元港幣,首次給予“增持”評級。
◆風險提示:PC 行業回暖不及預期;成本費用率管控不及預期;移動業 務繼續虧損;IDC 行業競爭格局變化

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