維達國際 ( 3331.HK) 2019Q3點評：木漿下行業績彈性顯現，高端產品推廣順利，首次覆蓋給予“強烈推薦”評級
機構：長城證券
評級：強烈推薦
Q3經營溢利同比+192%，業績超預期。2019Q1-3公司實現營業收入117.29億港幣，同比+9.1%，剔除匯率擾動因素同比增長13.6%；實現經營溢利增長29.8%至9.98億港元；分季度來看，Q1/Q2/Q3單季實現營業收入40.79/38.12/38.38億港元，同比分別+7.88%/7.29%/12.45%，實現經營溢利3.4/2.89/3.68億港幣，同比分別+2.72%/-7.37%/+192%。
高端紙巾推廣順利，個護新品上市，收入增速雙雙回暖。分品類來看，紙巾前三季度單季的收入增速分別為+10.2%/+9.13%/+14.23%，在木漿價格下行面臨降價壓力的情形下，公司高端紙巾新品推廣順暢及降價策略制定得當，公司Q3收入增速回升，表現靚麗。立體美、得寶的收入佔比由去年同期15%提升至今年20%。個護方面，前三季度單季的收入增速分別為-2.1%/-0.58%/+5.21%，6月份北歐品牌Libresse正式推出，帶動Q3表現較佳。
木漿價格下行彈性顯現，費用投入控制有效。公司的木漿庫存穩定在1個季度左右，儘管Q2毛利率已環比提升，但由於去年同期公司產品價格基數較高，H1利潤彈性尚未顯現。Q3來看，單季度毛利率達31.3%，同比+4.2pcpts，環比+1.3pcpts，Q1-3毛利率為29.14%，同比+0.26pcpts，利潤彈性顯現。Q3單季經營溢利率為9.59%，同比+5.89pcpts，環比+2.01pcpts，Q1-3經營溢利率為8.49%，同比+1.31pcpts。判斷公司隨着規模擴大及品牌樹立，費用投入比例逐漸減小。
投資建議：木漿價格催化下半年利潤彈性顯現，估值有望修復。長期來看，依靠領先的產品及優勢渠道佈局，維達有望成長為亞洲個護用品龍頭企業。預計2019-2022年EPS為0.98、1.19、1.32港元，對應PE為16、13、12x，首次覆蓋給予“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：原材料價格上漲風險；產能釋放不及預期；行業產能擴張大於需求，競爭加劇；擴品類推廣不及預期；營銷渠道建設不及預期。
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