玖龍紙業(02689.HK):短期壓力仍存,龍頭具備相對優勢
機構:興業證券
投資要點
受銷量推動,公司FY19銷售額+3.5%,利潤率下挫。公司近期公佈了截至2019年6月30日止全年業績。公司期內分別錄得銷售額/毛利潤/歸母淨利潤546.47億元/84.39億元/38.6億元,同比+3.5%/-27.2%/-50.8%,若不考慮匯兑損失,公司期內歸母淨利按年跌48.9%。受中美貿易爭端影響,期內下游需求及消費者信心承壓,行業景氣度受挫,公司產品售價亦下降,致使其綜合毛利率按年減6.5ct至15.4%。受收購美國漿紙廠及研發影響,公司期內銷售/行政費用率均提升0.8pct,淨利潤率按年跌7.8pct至7.1%。
銷量增長逾逾8%,噸淨利下跌跌54.52%。公司期內整體銷量按年增8.1%至14.09百萬噸。但受成本及價格壓力,公司期內單噸淨利潤及毛利潤分別下跌54.52%及32.64%。從市場數據看,國內箱板紙及瓦楞紙價格與國廢價差壓縮明顯。箱板紙市場均價與國廢價差從2017年11月逾4000元/噸高點跌至2019年6月不足2000元/噸。瓦楞紙出廠價與國廢價差從2017年7月逾2500元/噸跌至2019年6月不足1500元/噸。
整合產業鏈資源,週轉率優化,龍頭優勢凸顯。公司期內繼續展開全球佈局,開拓上游資源。公司期內在重慶新投產55萬噸年產量,並收購馬來西亞項目,繼美國產能後進一步加強上游紙漿佈局。此外,公司亦於期內進駐下游包裝業,有望逐步與公司核心業務產生協同效應。公司期內週轉多有改善,在行業低點時期,公司龍頭優勢進一步凸顯,拉大與小廠差距。
我們的觀點:旺季來臨,紙價小幅上漲,但短期仍面臨下游需求壓力及行業產能落地壓力,長期看好公司龍頭地位。受“金九銀十”傳統旺季來臨推動,行業此前迎來小幅行情,但據公司判斷,受整體下游需求影響,預計此次調價程度有限(50-100元),公司對提價仍呈審慎態度,預計短期內行業整體仍承壓。中期看,從19Q4至20Q1,行業仍有產能陸續落地,在需求無明顯提振的情況下,不利於紙品提價。然而長期看,我們看好行業景氣度趨弱下的龍頭整合,公司已於期內開發低價產品“江龍牌”,在保持穩健的盈利水平下,攝取小廠市場份額。公司期內穩健的週轉天數亦體現其龍頭優勢。行業龍頭地位日益鞏固。
風險提示:1、經濟疲軟及貿易政策變化;2、原材料價格波動;3、競爭加劇。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.