中国中药(00570.HK)：颗粒和饮片双驱动，持续稳健成长可期，给予“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：*如非特别说明，本报告货币为人民币
收入增长27.0%，归母净利润增长13.0%，业绩略低预期公司发布2019年中报：营收69.37亿元，同比增长27.0%；毛利润41.87亿元，同比增长42.9%；经调整EBITDA15.22亿元，同比增长13.3%；归母净利润8.59亿元，同比增长13.0%。中期派息每股股息5.72港仙，派息率约30%。收入增速符合预期，净利润增速略低于预期。
中药配方颗粒增长持续提速，有望成为行业试点放开最大赢家
核心业务中药配方颗粒维持强劲增长，实现收入45.71亿元，同比增长31.1%；毛利润30.25亿元，同比增长48.1%；净利润7.87亿元，同比增长23.1%。自国药集团收购天江药业之后，颗粒业务步入高速成长期，增长不断提速，16-18年收入增速22%/26%/30%。公司持续加大市场开拓和配药机的投入，通过配药机销售占比已达到52.9%，先发优势不断加强。
饮片业务整装出发，后续高成长可期
中药饮片业务实现收入6.05亿元，同比减少5.4%，毛利润1.09亿元，同比增长15.9%，净利润0.31亿元，同比减少17.3%。饮片业务收入的减少主要因为：1）公司优化业务结构，主动减少低毛利率业务，影响收入1.33亿元；2）新建饮片厂初期主要以内部供应为主，19年上半年对内销售2.12亿元，18年上半年1.12亿元。饮片行业在享受政策扶持的同时，对于品质的监管也不断加严，公司饮片业务有望受益行业集中度的提升。
19-21年业绩分别为0.33元/股、0.39元/股、0.47元/股
预计19-21年EPS为0.33/0.39/0.47元/股，当前股价对应PE10/9/7x。采用DCF方法得到公司合理价值为6.2港元/股。考虑公司作为中药配方颗粒龙头，先发、技术、品牌和全产业链布局等优势显著，将成为行业试点放开的最大受益者，持续稳健成长可期，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示配方颗粒增速放缓；费用投入超预期；行业政策风险
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