正通汽车 ( 1728.HK ) ：核心经销品牌拖累销量，汽车金融低于预期，网络拓展减速，维持“中性”评级，目标价2.6港元
机构：招商证券
评级：中性
目标价：2.6港元
■净利润同比下降33.6%，新车业务下滑，汽车金融增速放缓
■经销网络扩张放缓，未能充分受益宝马增长，路虎和奥迪拖累业绩
■下调2019-21E净利润预测21%/21%/21%，下调目标价至2.6港元
业绩低于预期，新车销售和汽车金融表现不佳
上半年净利润同比下降33.6%至4.7亿元人民币低于预期，收入同比下降7.1%至174.3亿元人民币，综合毛利率同比减少0.5ppt至11.8%。1）新车销量同比下降5.6%至5.2万辆，豪华车销量下滑3.8%，跑输豪华车市场。下跌幅度超预期，受路虎和奥迪销量相对低迷拖累；新车毛利率同比下降1.6ppt至4.7%拖累综合毛利率，跌幅比预期少，是受新车销售中各品牌占比结构变化影响。其中豪华车毛利率下降1.6ppt至5.2%，中档品牌销售1,300辆但毛利贡献约等于零。2）售后业务收入增长7.8%，售后毛利率46.3%环比回升0.7ppt，与18年全年水平一致，贡献54.9%的毛利润，是业绩的主要支撑。3）金融服务利息及收入同比增长27.8%至4.7亿元人民币，增速大幅放缓，收入规模及毛利润贡献均低于预期。4）运营效率下降，销售/管理/财务费用率合计同比增长1.5ppt至9.7%。
核心经销品牌低迷拖累销量，经销渠道扩张继续放缓
影响上半年业绩的负面因素短期难消除：1）第一大经销品牌宝马上半年中国区销量强劲增长，但因去年公司经销网络扩张大幅放缓，公司未能充分受益今年宝马带动效应；2）其第二、第三大经销品牌奥迪和捷豹路虎的拖累（估计合计占其豪华车收入约35%）。捷豹路虎今年上半年中国销量同比下滑34.9%至5.2万辆，2019年和2020年是捷豹路虎的调整期，我们预计短期内较难出现转机。奥迪在中国销量同比增幅为1.9%，但终端折扣巨大，定价能力在传统三大豪华品牌中最弱；3）上半年公司新开经销店仅一家，合计141家，网络拓展持续放缓，预计对未来几年新车销量、售后业务规模以及汽车金融等衍生业务产生压力。
维持中性评级，下调目标价至2.6港元
下调2019-21E净利润预测21%/21%/21%，比市场一致预期低28%/31%/32%，反映新车销售增长、售后收入增长以及汽车金融业务的规模收益率下降的潜在风险。下调目标价21%至2.6港元（前次3.3港元），对应6.0xFY19EP/E（估值倍数维持）。
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