中国民航信息网络(00696.HK)：宏观经济增长降速拖累公司收入增长，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价18港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：18港元
投资要点
收入实现单位数增长，原因在于宏观经济下行、致乘飞机出行人数增速降低。19H1年公司实现收入38.4亿元（YoY+9.2%），其中航空信息技术服务收入22.2亿元（YoY+8.9%，收入占比58%），均实现单位数增长。主要收入来源“航空信息技术服务”收入增速较低的原因是中国商营航班订座量增速较低，2019上半年同比仅7.7%（其中国内订座量2.75亿人次，YoY+6.6%；国际订座量4961万人次，YoY+14.2%）；我们判断其原因在于宏观经济下行，导致大众乘飞机旅游意愿降低，以及商务乘机频次下降；预计此影响在未来一段时间仍将持续。
成本费用增速高于收入增速，导致净利润增速低于收入增速。1）成本+费用同比增速12.2%，增速较前两季度有所放缓，主要是刚性成本难以下调，主要有：19H1折旧摊销上升最多（4.15亿元，YoY+38%），主要原因是会计准则调整，降经营租赁支出包括在折旧摊销中，19H1折旧摊销+租赁支出同比增长21%；人工成本7.74亿元（YoY+18%），原因在于工资及社保调整；技术支援及服务费3.15亿元（YoY-11%），主要在于技术外包减少；软硬件销售成本2.56亿元（YoY+67%），原因在于设备销售业务增加。2）由于成本费用增速高于收入增速，19H1公司营业费用率同比下降1.6pct至40.4%，归母净利率同比下降1.2pct至37.0%；公司实现营业利润15.5亿元（YoY+5.0%），归母净利润14.2亿元（YoY+5.6%）。
投资建议：预计宏观经济下行对公司收入的负面影响将持续，下调目标价至18港元，维持“审慎增持”评级。我们预计公司2019-2021年收入分别为80.2、86.4、93.2亿元，归母净利润分别为24.0、26.2、28.2亿元，EPS分别为0.82、0.90、0.96元。我们认为短期宏观经济较难恢复高增长，大众航空出行频次会维持在低增速，公司利润率改善时间延后，因此下调公司目标价至18港元（下调25%），目标价对应2019-2021年EPS的PE分别为20.0、18.2、17.0倍，维持“审慎增持”评级。
风险提示：重大事件影响航空业发展；政策风险；公司谈判地位下降。
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