2019年中报点评 | 保利协鑫能源(3800.HK )：亏损幅度收窄，压力有望缓解，维持“持有”评级
机构：中信证券
评级：持有
目标价：0.36港元
公司中报亏损幅度环比收窄7.2%，产品结构优化或助力盈利触底修复；同时推进股权结构调整，有望缓解财务压力。下调2019-2021年EPS预测至-0.02/0.01/0.03元，对应-16/31/11倍PE或0.26/0.26/0.25倍PB，给予目标价0.33元/0.36港元（对应2019年0.3倍PB），维持“持有”评级。
▍亏损幅度减小，盈利有望触底修复。公司公布2019年中报，实现营收100.02亿元（-9.3%），毛利率23.5%（-6.7pcts），归母净亏损9.98亿元（-361.1%），亏损幅度环比收窄7.2%。受上半年光伏材料售价大幅下降影响，以及高额的营业开支和融资成本拖累，公司业绩仍然承压，但随着产品结构逐步改善，盈利能力有望触底修复。同时，公司拟出售培育期资产和非主营业务等资产（如协鑫新能源51%股权、新疆协鑫31.5%股权），快速降低负债率和回流现金。
▍多晶硅新产能逐步爬坡，鑫单晶出货量持续提升。公司19H1光伏材料业务收入65.8亿元（-18.4%），亏损13.11亿元（-612.1%），毛利率0.9%（-15.3pcts），产品盈利能力受降价重挫。多晶硅：收入12.63亿元（+143.7%），产/销量为3.66/2.07万吨（+3.4%/+295.9%），均价60.9元/吨（-38.5%）。徐州产能保持7万吨，新疆一期释放产能4.8万吨且年底望扩至6万吨，持续爬坡降本。硅片：收入45.35亿元（-35.1%），产/销量为14.66/12.10GW（+10.7%/+21.8%），均价0.42元/W（-39.6%）。目前硅片产能升至35GW，其中鑫单晶月出货量超7000万片，下半年有望突破亿片，全年鑫单晶出货量预估5GW。
▍光伏发电业绩基本持稳，推进股权结构调整缓解财务压力。公司19H1电力总收入34.22亿元（+15.8%），毛利率66.5%（-1.3pcts），毛利率下滑由于新并网项目电价下调。光伏电站业务：直接管理运营371MW电站，发电量2.61亿度（-3.1%），收入2.49亿元（-5.3%），毛利率54.1%（-1.4pcts），盈利保持稳定。协鑫新能源：光伏总装机7.18GW（+0.6%），其中19H1已出售超1GW电站控股权，收入31.73亿元（+17.3%），毛利率67.5%（-1.2pcts），归母净利润4.1亿元。公司计划出售协鑫新能源控股权实现电站出表，降低负债率缓解财务压力。
▍风险因素：新产能释放低于预期，股权结构调整低于预期等。
▍投资建议：公司受硅料和多晶硅片价格下挫盈利承压，下调2019-2021年EPS预测至-0.02/0.01/0.03元（原2019/2020年预测为0.05/0.07元），对应-16/31/11倍PE或0.26/0.26/0.25倍PB，给予目标价0.33元/0.36港元（对应2019年0.3倍PB），维持“持有”评级
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