海螺创业(0586.HK)：上半年业绩符合预期，主营业务快速发展，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
上半年业绩符合预期2019年上半年公司实现营业收入人民币21.03亿元，同比增长106.23%。归母净利润31.41亿元，同比增长24.12%。公司主营净利润为4.29亿元，同比增长48%。联营公司海螺水泥贡献利润27.22亿元，同比增长18%。
固废危废处置如期快速发展
2019年上半年公司固废危废处置板块实现收入人民币2.77亿元，同比增长90%；实现毛利2.04亿元，同比增长74%。其中，危废处置收入2.24亿元，占比81.10%；固废处置收入0.52亿元，占比18.90%。公司新签约5个固废危废处置项目，新增产能60万吨/年。我们预计公司固废危废产能2019-2021年末分别能达到225/395/515万吨/年，收入为7.5/18.6/30亿元，同比增速为170%/150%/61%。
垃圾处置上半年大幅增长，毛利率略有下降
2019年上半年公司垃圾处置板块实现收入人民币15.04亿元，同比增长187%；实现毛利3.84亿元，同比增长26%。公司垃圾处置签约项目超出预期，新签约15个炉排炉项目，超过2018年全年签约数。但由于上半年毛利率较低的建造收入占比较高，毛利率略有下降。根据公司上半年发展情况，我们预计公司2019-2021年末垃圾处置产能分别为187/443/879万吨/年，收入为31.8/42.5/51.9亿元，同比增速为36%/48%/39%。
海螺水泥营收增长超预期，现金充裕
海螺水泥2019上半年主营业务营收人民币716.4亿元，同比增长56.6%；归母净利润152.6亿元，同比增长17.9%。行业需求景气，上半年营收超预期，为全年盈利奠定基础。广发建材团队预计2019-2021年海螺水泥对公司利润贡献分别为54.98/49.99/44.93亿元。
盈利预测与投资评级
2019年8月26日，海螺创业（00586.HK）收盘价为26.25港元，我们预测公司2019-2021年EPS分别为人民币3.543/3.654/3.748元。我们对公司的主营环保板块和联营的水泥板块分开估值，由于
（1）未来3-5年固废危废及垃圾处置业务的快速增长；
（2）联营的海螺水泥为水泥行业龙头公司，经营稳健。分别基于2019年环保板块11倍PE和水泥板块广发建材团队给予的1.8倍PB，公司环保板块和水泥板块合理价值分别为6.33和26.23港元/股，合计32.56港元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
危废、固废处置产能建设进度低于预期；危废处置涨价幅度低于预期，项目利用率不及预期，炉排炉项目进度低于预期，水泥价格下行等风险。
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