中金公司(3908.HK)业务结构弱化周期属性中报业绩稳健增长维持”买入“评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：18.68港币
核心观点
中金公司半年报业绩稳健
中金公司2019年H1共实现营业收入102.38亿人民币，同比+17.2%；扣非归母净利润16.9亿人民币，同比+7.78%；H1EPS为0.44元/股，同比+12.7%；H1加权平均ROE为4.4%，较上年同期+0.1%。公司杠杆倍数有所提升，剔除客户保证金后权益乘数由2018年末的5.52提升至2019H1的6.13。
投行、投资业绩表现较好轻资产业务：2019H1公司手续费及佣金净收入同比+8.0%，主要归于投行业务的稳健成长。
1）投行业务方面，2019H1公司投行业务净收入12.14亿元，同比+21.0%。上半年公司完成A股IPO项目5单，承销金额达59.13亿元，排名市场第二，对比A股市场IPO融资规模下滑33.7%，公司投行业绩表现较好。
2）投资管理方面，公司H1资管业务收入8.3亿元，同比+8.1%。其中资产管理及公募基金收入3.02亿元，同比+3.9%；私募股权投资基金收入5.2亿元，同比+10.8%。资管新规下，公司专注主动管理，积极发展公募及私募股权投资基金，截至6月末资管业务总规模达7198.2亿元，较2018年末+8.7%。
3）经纪方面，19H1公司经纪业务收入19.92亿元，同比+3.6%。市场回暖环境下，公司加大财富管理平台建设，截至6月末财富管理客户账户资产总值达8265.3亿元，较2018年末+16.5%。
重资产业务：1）利息净支出两个季度共3.58亿元，同比+136.0%，主要归于2019年监管放宽，公司加大债务融资。2）2019上半年投资收益35.55亿元，同比+44.1%，主要归于2019上半年市场行情改善带来权益投资收益同比+94.8%，同时公司加大债券持仓，债券投资收益同比+21.5%。
投资建议：机构业务布局优势明显，盈利能力有望持续占优行业层面，多重政策的落地和资金支持
一方面有助于提升券商资产质量改善的预期，另一方面可能带来市场成交的边际活跃，利于券商经营环境的缓和。
公司层面，存量市场竞争加剧的环境下，公司机构客户业务优势明显：投行、大资管、创新业务和跨境业务多点发力，盈利水平同业占优。预计公司2019-2021年BVPS分别为10.55、11.35、12.28元，按最新收盘价计算对应PB分别为1.3、1.2、1.1倍。2015H1-2018年公司PB估值中枢在1.2-2.3x，当前估值仍有提升空间，结合公司未来盈利能力趋势，给予1.6xPB估值，H股合理价值为18.68港币/股，维持买入评级。
风险提示：市场成交金额持续下滑；资产质量大幅恶化；投行资管等收入确认不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
