三生制药(1530.HK)2019半年报点评正常化纯利增长强劲医保谈判有望带来弹性维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
◆正常化纯利增长强劲。公司2019H1实现收入26.4亿人民币（+21.5%）， 实现归母净利润 3.2 亿元人民币（-37.5%），不考虑三生国健股权激励 计划开支等的正常化纯利为7.5亿元人民币（+34.1%）。毛利率增加2.4pct 到 82.7%， EPS0.13 元人民币，上半年正常化纯利增长符合市场预期。
◆特比澳销售持续强劲，益赛普有望受益医保目录调整。 核心品种：1） 特比澳 19H1 收入 11.9 亿元（+41.9%），强劲增长与医保拉动销量叠加 医院认可度提升有关，Iqvia 显示该产品目前市场份额为 72.5%，预计 19~20年销售增速有望超过30%。 2）益赛普19H1收入5亿元（+13.2%）， 中国市场份额约为 61.9%，份额基本维持稳定，此外该品种受益 19 版医 保目录新增重度斑块银屑病适应症，有望贡献增量，预计 19~20 年益赛 普有望保持约 10~15%稳健增长。
◆促红素产品稳健增长，长效 GLP-1 有望纳入医保目录。1）促红素产 品：益比奥和赛博尔 19H1 收入 4.5 亿元（+5.8%），其中益比奥收入 3.4 亿元（-1%），赛博尔收入 1.2 亿元（+32.3%）。赛博尔产品市场需求 强劲并持续增长。2）糖尿病板块：长短效 GLP-1 产品与优泌林合计估测 录得个位数增长，糖尿病板块盈利贡献有限，但随着公司糖尿病产品逐渐 扩充和 GLP-1 有望通过谈判进入医保，该板块长期有望贡献增量。
◆伊尼妥有望于 19 年获批上市，在研管线不断丰富。公司 19H1 研发开 支 2.6 亿元（+48.2%，包含收购项目费用 0.5 亿元），研发平台加大投 入。研发进度方面，抗 HER2 单抗伊尼妥临床核查结束，补充材料已提 交，有望于年底前获批上市；益赛普预充式注射剂完成 III 期临床并于 7 月报产，有望于年底前获批上市；抗 CD20 单抗已启动与美罗华比较的 I 期药代动力学研究。早期品种中抗 PD1 单抗获 FDA 新药临床批件并处于 临床爬坡阶段，IL17（下一代自免疫用药）获中国临床批件并即将开始入 组。在研产品阵容强大、梯队完善，潜力大。
◆盈利预测与估值。公司是生物药龙头企业，现有产品强劲增长，管线 布局丰富。考虑到 19 年购股权开支与股权激励开支计入行政费用，下调 19~21 年 EPS 至 0.46/0.69/0.81 元（原为 0.60/0.70/0.82 元），同比分 别-9.1%/+50.5%/+17.3%，对应 19~21 年 PE 为 24/16/14x，维持“买入” 评级。
◆风险提示：研发进度不及预期，销售不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
