中国利郎(1234.HK)中报稳健低估值高分红属性仍突出维持“买入”评级
机构:东吴证券
评级:买入
投资要点
事件:公司公布中报,19H1收入同增19.1%至15.40亿元,经营利润同增21.9%至4.65亿元,净利润同增14%至3.89亿元;中期派中期股息18港仙、特别股息8港仙,派息比例达到72%。
受益渠道调整19H1利郎主品牌实现20.3%收入增长。门店较年初净增83家达到2753家(同增3%,其中轻商务系列255家),同时可比同店维持高单位数增长;地域来看,受益次新店提货以及山西地区18年更换经销商的效果逐渐体现,华北销售增长高达40%;华东地区在轻商务系列销售带动下增长26.8%,中南地区受益湖南及广东地区购物商场店铺增加,19H1收入增长高达22.6%。
盈利能力稳定,轻商务代销模式下库存压力有所提升。盈利能力方面,19H1毛利率在轻商务收入占比提升背景下同比微降0.5pp,但受益单店店效提升,费用率有效压缩,经营利润率同比提升0.7pp至30.2%,但由于存款利率下降以及综合所得税率小幅提升,净利润增幅为14.1%,小于收入增幅。周转方面,存货周转天数从18年同期的78天增加到19H1的129天,绝对值达到6.1亿元,主要由于1)轻商务系列以代销模式进行销售,存货记在公司报表上;2)2019秋、冬订货会订单同比增加,同时生产周期较2018年提前约10天致产品提前入库。应收账款周转天数保持稳定在87天。受到存货余额增加的影响,公司的经营性现金流同比下降12.8%至1.71亿元。
作为闽派男装的代表性龙头企业,公司2013年以来启动的多项改革效果在18、19年释放非常明显。改革包括:1)产品方面,搭建独立设计团队并重视面料开发,目前研发团队400人,2019年产品中原创比例预计达到70%,利用独有面料生产的产品比例接近50%;2)精简供应商团队提升品质,每个品类主要和3家核心供应商合作,该等核心供应商占公司采购比重80%;3)加强渠道管控,公司与一级经销商本身合作周期长、ERP早已完成全覆盖,公司对渠道零售数据把控力度强,同时渠道结构不断升级,2019H1年2753家门店中购物商场门店数量达到约680家。在此背景下公司18、19年表现优于同业,目前19年三季订货会已全部开完,由于公司期货占比90%以上,基本锁定全年收入增长。
盈利预测与投资评级:2019年,公司继续按计划推进净开店200家目标,同时同店销售取得不低于高位数的增长,根据已有19SS/A/W订货会分别取得23%/21%/10%-13%增长,同时公司预计2020春夏订货会不低于高单位数增长,我们预计公司19/20/21年归母净利同增16%/12%/10%至8.7/9.8/10.8亿元,对应PE8.2/7.3/6.6X,假设维持2018年75%分红率,对应19年股息率超过9%,维持“买入”评级。
风险提示:零售环境意外遇冷、轻商务运营效果不及预期

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