中国东方教育(0667.HK)深度报告职业技能培训龙头品牌护航+持续内生扩张给予强烈推荐评级
机构：广证恒生
评级：强烈推荐
目标价：无
核心要点：
⚫ 中国最大的职业技能培训集团，三大培训领域市占率领先。公司成立于 1988 年，目前旗下拥有烹饪、信息技术、汽车服务三大培训领域，市占 率分别为 23%/3.4%/9.7%，均为行业第一位。 2018 年，公司实现营收 32.6 亿元，其中烹饪、信息技术、汽车服务三大培训领域营收占比分别为 65%/21%/13.6%；拥有 145 个学校中心，培训学生 12.4 万人次，其中 81%学生学习周期在 2 年以上。
⚫ 高就业率塑造品牌口碑，标准化运营保证扩张效率，扩赛道能力凸显。 公司核心竞争力在于拥有 30 多年的品牌沉淀，且扩赛道能力凸显，目 前形成 3 大领域 6 大品牌互补发展状态；公司在全国拥有 50 多万名校 友且与2.8万家企业建立合作关系，同时拥有强大的就业帮扶制度， 93% 左右的高就业率保障市场口碑。管理方面，中央厨房课程研发，同时在 地方层面推出特色课程，课程紧贴市场需求保障学生就业；统一标准化 运营，保障校区扩张稳定发展成长。
⚫ 短期看次新校区成熟提升，长期看新一轮校区扩张驱动成长。公司校区 数量从 2016 的 76 家提升至 2018 年年底的 145 家，3 年校区数量接近翻 翻，考虑新校区爬坡期压制利润释放，2019 年有望迎来校区成熟释放利 润。同时，公司预计在未来 3 年新增 51 家新学校以及 6 家体验中心， 有望从长期贡献业绩成长。
◼ 盈利预测：我们预计 2019-2021 年公司归母净利润为 8.1/10.5/13.4 亿元， 对应 EPS 为 0.37/0.48/0.61，对应 PE 为 35/27/21 倍。首次覆盖，我们 看好公司凭借品牌优势，在多赛道协同运营成长；短期看次新校区成熟 释放利润，长期看好公司凭借标准化扩张驱动成长，给予 2020 年 30-35 倍估值，对应还有 11%-30%的空间，强烈推荐评级。
风险提示：教育政策风险、招生人数不及预期
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