波司登(3998.HK)公司首次覆盖报告行业扩容机遇显现龙头革新志在千里首次覆盖给予增持评级目标价3.03港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：3.03 港元
本报告导读： 公司产品、供应链、渠道多方位调整收官，聚焦主航道、升级主品牌，业绩增长动力
强劲，首次覆盖给予增持评级。
摘要：
首次覆盖给予增持评级。预计 2019、2020、2021 财年 EPS 分别为 0.12、 0.15、0.17 元，同比增长 28.19%/24.37%/19.44%，考虑到公司 2019 年改革成效显现、业绩增长动力强劲，给予公司 2019 财年 23 倍 PE， 目标价 3.03 港元，首次覆盖给予增持评级。
羽绒服行业景气度高，国产品牌迎来新机遇。2018 年国内羽绒服市 场规模达到 1068.2 亿元，首次突破千亿元大关，行业规模保持高速增 长，2018-2022 年五年 CAGR 为 10.98%，高于服装行业 6%的整体增 速。国内羽绒服普及率低，行业发展潜力巨大。行业集中度高，CR10 超 40%，国际品牌与时装品牌加速进场，竞争资源向头部品牌集中。 消费者对羽绒服从单一保暖需求向多功能性、时尚化转变，需求扩容 带来产品提价，国产品牌认可度提升，赢得有利发展机会。
聚焦主业，改革成效显著。2018 年起，公司全面发力推动战略转型， 改革成效显现，收入利润增长重回正轨。供应链方面，智能化/自动化 物流建设、订单精细化管理和零售管理云技术的应用，使公司供应链 快反能力领先同行，快反周期缩短至 15 天，快反产品占比超过 60%。 产品方面，国际设计师加盟、加大研发投入推动研发设计持续升级， 产品功能性和时尚性增强，性价比领先国际大牌。品牌方面，加大营 销投入，通过明星营销、时装周走秀、与漫威等热门 IP 合作打造联 名款等多种营销组合扩大品牌影响力。
渠道重回正增长，从结构到质量不断优化。公司渠道调整已经结束， 2017 财年渠道数量重回正增长。渠道结构上，扩大直营渠道占比、加 大线上渠道投入；渠道质量上，加快店铺形象升级，积极布局旗舰店、 快闪店等优质新兴渠道。渠道调整成效显现，店效不断提高。
风险提示：新产品改革不及预期，中高端价位产品销售不佳，成本继 续上行压力。
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