中国东方教育(0667.HK)1H19业绩预计同增40%+持续看好未来表现维持“买入”评级目标价16港元
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：16港元
事件
2019年7月22日，中国东方教育发布FY 1H2019正面盈利预告。
评论
FY 1H2019持续经营净利润增速不低于40%。公司预计，FY 1H 2019持续经营业务的税后净利润同比18年2.16亿元增加不低于40%（货币单位为人民币，下同），若按40%增速测算，为3.02亿元，其中已考虑以下非经常性调整：①股权激励开支约7500万元；②上市开支约2000万元；③19年会计准则变更影响约2000万元。若FY1H2019加回以上调整项，公司调整后税后净利润预计超过4.17亿元，预计同增不低于90%，业绩快速增长，符合预期。
东方网点扩张加速，业绩或在未来持续兑现。公司2007-2012年间年均增加3所学校，2012-2015年间年均增加10所学校，2016年开始加速扩张，2016/2017/2018年分别新增19/（36+6）/（19+12）个学校+美味学院，未来三年公司计划持续保持快速扩张态势，预计分别新增20/（15+4）/（16+6）个学校+美味学院。单个网点盈亏平衡期约为2-3年，我们认为过去三年间快速扩张的网点或迎来业绩兑现期。
高知名度+学历与非学历并举+高就业率+全国布局，持续看好东方业绩增长。东方实质业态介于培训和学校之间：一方面，资产比学校要轻，另一方面，利用效率比一般培训公司要高，运营比一般培训公司稳定，网点管理集中度比较高，管理费用更加可控。①传统品牌家喻户晓，知名度认可度高，多品牌互补发展，跨赛道拓展能力强，新赛道美业值期待。②学历教育与非学历教育兼收并蓄，145所中26所提供中专学历。③增强校企合作，打造订单班模式，长期课程平均就业率高达93.7%。④全国性培训网络持续布局中，五大区域中心有望提高整体运营效率。
投资建议
我们预测2019-2021年公司整体净利润分别为7.29/9.60/12.79亿元，+43%/+32%/+33%YOY，对应PE分别为34/26/20x。调整后净利润分别为8.78/10.43/13.41亿元，对应PE分别为29/24/19x。中报业绩释放，实现快速增长，维持买入评级，提高目标价至16港元。
风险提示：政策风险，招生不及预期，新品牌拓展不及预期等。
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